Complimentary Articles and Analysis
Stock-Signals: S&P 500 Trend Composite Signals
The Trend Composite is a trend indicator that aggregate signals in five indicators. Bollinger Bands (125,1), Keltner Channels (125,2), 5-day Rate-of-Change of 125-day SMA, StochClose (125,5) and CCI-Close (125). Click on any column heading to sort. This table is updated every Friday before the open.
Using Outsized Moves to Identify Trend Reversals – Checking in on ITB and SOXX
Trends often start with outsized moves. But how do we measure and identify such moves? Chartists can measure moves in Average True Range (ATR) terms using the ATR Trailing Stop SAR indicator (ATR-SAR). ATR is a volatility indicator developed by Welles Wilder.
Internet Boom, Apple’s Run, AI and Nvidia
I am mostly a technical analyst and trading system developer, but I also like to understand the companies behind the big business trends. AI is
Overbought Conditions Reflect Strength and Said Strength Drives Momentum Rotation Strategies
Momentum and trend strategies are off to a roaring start here in 2024. More often than not, these strategies buy leading stocks that appear overbought. Buying stocks that appear overbought often goes against our “gut feel”, but overbought conditions reflect strong buying pressure and this is clearly
Stock-Strategy: Dual Momentum Rotation Strategy for S&P 500 Stocks
Momentum strategies performed well in the first quarter of 2024. The S&P 500 Dual Momentum Rotation Strategy gained 24.8% in the first three months and handily outperformed its benchmark. $SPX was up 10.2%. Breaking it down, the strategy was up 7.3% in January, 11.1% in February and 4.7% in March. S&P 500 stocks even outperformed Nasdaq 100 stocks in March.
Stock-Strategy: Dual Momentum Rotation Strategy for Nasdaq 100 Stocks
Momentum strategies performed well in the first quarter of 2024. The Nasdaq 100 Dual Momentum Rotation Strategy gained 16.8% for the first three months and handily outperformed its benchmark. $NDX was up 8.5%. Breaking it down, the strategy was up 6.1% in January, up 11.9% in February and down 1.6% in March. NDX stocks underperformed the broader market in March.
An Indicator to Define the Trend and Quantify Momentum
The 200-day SMA is perhaps the most widely used long-term moving average. As its name implies, it is a simple indicator that chartists can use for trend-following and momentum strategies. For trend-following, we just need to know
20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Resumes its Downtrend
The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) failed again at the falling 40-week SMA and looks poised to resume its bigger downtrend. Keep in mind that bonds and yields move in the opposite direction. A resumption of the
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF Resumes its Uptrend
The Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) is showing strength here in March as it breaks back above its 40-week SMA. More importantly, the long-term trend is up and this week’s breakout argues for a continuation of this uptrend.
Using the ATR Trailing Stop to Manage the Trade and Define the Trend
As its name suggests, the ATR Trailing Stop is normally used to trail a stop-loss for a long position. It can also be used to identify an outsized decline that could reverse an uptrend. Today’s example will show how to apply the ATR Trailing Stop on