As noted on Thursday, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in a clear uptrend and price action remains bullish. The concerns start when we look under the surface and move down in market cap. The S&P 500 hit a new high this week and yet less than 60% of SPX stocks
Stocks were hit pretty hard the last few weeks with small-caps leading the way. The recent outsized declines created short-term oversold conditions that could lead to a mean-reversion bounce in the coming days. However, there are some medium-term issues that point to a corrective period in the coming weeks. Namely
The big trends remain up, but medium-term breadth and price action suggest that we are currently in a corrective period. The equal-weight S&P 500 ETF, mid-caps and small-caps got the correction memo, but large-cap techs, SPY and QQQ did not. Healthcare stocks are also holding up well and contributing to strength in SPY.
It was quite an eventful week with the 10-yr yield falling sharply, the 5-yr yield surging, gold reversing its upswing and stocks taking a hard hit the last three days. Tech and Healthcare are holding up relatively well as Industrials, Finance, Materials and Consumer Staples led the decline
The Dollar, gold, bonds and high-growth stocks were covered on Thursday morning because of big moves and a signal for gold. This was perhaps a knee jerk reaction so I will continue to watch and monitor price action next week, which is when the market could show its true colors. Today’s note will cover the …
SPY Grinds Higher, Short-term Breadth Wanes, QQQ Turns Up, IWM Holds Breakout (Premium) Read More »
SPY stalled the last seven weeks, but remains in a clear uptrend. Despite some concerns with seasonal patterns in June, August and September, the price chart for SPY remains strong and the Composite Breadth Model is fully bullish. The Fed balance sheet expanded this week and hit a new record
This commentary will look at this historic advance in the S&P 500, and them some less historic charts for oil, gold, silver, bonds and the Dollar. The 14-month gain in the S&P 500 is the largest in over 70 years. Oil is still challenging resistance as a bullish cup-with-handle forms. Gold remains in the midst …
S&P 500 Makes History – Plus Oil, Gold, Silver, Bonds and the Dollar (Premium) Read More »
Stocks closed weak on Tuesday and are set to open lower on Wednesday, which means the corrective process is set to continue. It is still a bull market according to the Composite Breadth Model and the weight of the evidence, but the near-term picture is looking shaky with QQQ struggling
I covered the stock market environment on Tuesday and Thursday because it seemed timely given price action. This commentary will focus on the macro picture with analysis for oil, gold, gold miners, silver and bonds. Gold looks bullish and we have a new trend signal in the Gold Miners ETF. Copper looks even more
Tech and high-growth took another beating on Monday and followed through on last week’s breakdowns. Even though other areas are still holding up, many non-tech stocks and ETFs closed lower after being up during the day. The chart below shows the Home Construction ETF (ITB), Regional Bank ETF (KRE),
It was another week and another new high for SPY and the old economy. Outside of tech and high-growth, strength in the S&P 500 is broad as the S&P 500 Equal-weight ETF also hit a new high. ETFs related to industrials, finance, materials, consumer staples, transports, healthcare, energy, housing, steel, copper, and uranium hit
The broad market environment (market regime) remains bullish. The Composite Breadth Model is bullish and the key inputs (breadth indicators) support this bull market. Even though QQQ dipped the last two weeks and IWM stalled since mid February (blue shading), SPY hit a new high recently and all three remain well above their rising 200-day SMAs (red lines).
Seasonality takes a back seat to price action when it comes to analysis and signals, but seasonal patterns can provide a tailwind to existing trends or fresh signals. This report will look at the best and worst six months, break down the monthly numbers and analyze trends in the equity curves. May is here and June-July are around the corner so we will focus on these three months.
The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but we are seeing a short-term non-confirmation from QQQ and continued relative weakness in IWM. SPY remains the leader of the group with a new high this week. However, the current leg up is also getting quite extended because we have not seen a decent correction in six months. Even though the risk appetite returned to QQQ and
The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but some yellow flags are starting to appear. Yellow flags argue for some caution and are not outright bearish. For example, defensive sectors are leading, but the offensive sectors are still holding up, even though they are lagging. Small-caps are
Large-caps and large-cap techs ripped higher the last five-six weeks with SPY and QQQ hitting new highs. The Technology SPDR and Consumer Discretionary SPDR are leading the charge among the sectors with 13+ percent gains. Keep in mind that Amazon accounts for 23.5% of XLY and Tesla accounts for 14.45%. These two are not exactly pure plays in the
The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and seven sector SPDRs joined the new high parade (XLK, XLY, XLC, XLI, XLB, XLRE, XLP). The Finance SPDR (XLF) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV) are within 2% of 52-week highs. Strength within the S&P 500 is broad and supportive of a bull market. Today’s report will show QQQ close to a new high and IWM struggling, but still bullish. Technology and Consumer Discretionary
The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and three sectors confirmed this new high. The Consumer Staples SPDR, Materials SPDR and Industrials SPDR recorded new highs at some point this week. Even though the other big sectors did not hit new highs this week, they are in uptrends and within three percent of new highs. These include the Technology SPDR
The market regime remains bullish, but we are seeing corrective price action over the last few months. The Nasdaq 100 ETF started it all off with a sharp decline from mid February to early March. IWM got involved this week with its biggest fourth decline greater than 9% since March 2020. SPY has largely avoided the correction fray and remains the strongest of the big three.
We finally got a bit of a shake up this week as oil fell sharply on Thursday. We also saw big declines in the Nasdaq 100 ETF and Russell 2000 ETF. It was basically triple shock Thursday with small-caps, large-techs and oil getting hit hard. Tech and growth related ETFs were also hit hard as money moved out of the high-beta end of the market.
SPY and IWM recorded new highs this week and continue to lead the broader market. Even though QQQ and XLK are underperforming this year, the old school sectors held strong and propped up SPY. After short pullbacks into early March, stocks caught a bid this week and we are seeing flag breakouts in