Market Timing

SPY Grinds Higher, Short-term Breadth Wanes, QQQ Turns Up, IWM Holds Breakout (Premium)

The Dollar, gold, bonds and high-growth stocks were covered on Thursday morning because of big moves and a signal for gold. This was perhaps a knee jerk reaction so I will continue to watch and monitor price action next week, which is when the market could show its true colors. Today’s note will cover the …

SPY Grinds Higher, Short-term Breadth Wanes, QQQ Turns Up, IWM Holds Breakout (Premium) Read More »

S&P 500 Makes History – Plus Oil, Gold, Silver, Bonds and the Dollar (Premium)

This commentary will look at this historic advance in the S&P 500, and them some less historic charts for oil, gold, silver, bonds and the Dollar. The 14-month gain in the S&P 500 is the largest in over 70 years. Oil is still challenging resistance as a bullish cup-with-handle forms. Gold remains in the midst …

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Timing Models – Long-term Trends for the Big Three, Composite Breadth Model, Yield Spreads, Fed Balance Sheet (Premium)

The broad market environment (market regime) remains bullish. The Composite Breadth Model is bullish and the key inputs (breadth indicators) support this bull market. Even though QQQ dipped the last two weeks and IWM stalled since mid February (blue shading), SPY hit a new high recently and all three remain well above their rising 200-day SMAs (red lines).

Seasonal Trends for the S&P 500 – Best and Worst Six Months, Monthly Breakdowns, Equity Curves (Premium)

Seasonality takes a back seat to price action when it comes to analysis and signals, but seasonal patterns can provide a tailwind to existing trends or fresh signals. This report will look at the best and worst six months, break down the monthly numbers and analyze trends in the equity curves. May is here and June-July are around the corner so we will focus on these three months.

Timing Models – QQQ Non-Confirmation, IWM Lagging, Oil Breaks Out, Bonds Reverse, Fed Balance Sheet Contracts (Premium)

The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but we are seeing a short-term non-confirmation from QQQ and continued relative weakness in IWM. SPY remains the leader of the group with a new high this week. However, the current leg up is also getting quite extended because we have not seen a decent correction in six months. Even though the risk appetite returned to QQQ and

Timing Models – SPY Hits New High as XLY and XLK Lead, IWM Consolidates, Yield Spreads Narrow Even Further (Premium)

The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and seven sector SPDRs joined the new high parade (XLK, XLY, XLC, XLI, XLB, XLRE, XLP). The Finance SPDR (XLF) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV) are within 2% of 52-week highs. Strength within the S&P 500 is broad and supportive of a bull market. Today’s report will show QQQ close to a new high and IWM struggling, but still bullish. Technology and Consumer Discretionary

Timing Models – SPY Leads, QQQ Perks Up, SPX Leads Composite Breadth Model and Yield Spreads Narrow (Premium)

The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and three sectors confirmed this new high. The Consumer Staples SPDR, Materials SPDR and Industrials SPDR recorded new highs at some point this week. Even though the other big sectors did not hit new highs this week, they are in uptrends and within three percent of new highs. These include the Technology SPDR

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