Systematic Strategies and Next Level Technical Analysis
The Mag7 ETF struggled in June-July, but got its mojo back in August with a breakout. Not only did the ETF break out, but it followed through on this breakout with a strong September. MAGS is even starting to outperform. $MAGS
Mag7 ETF Takes the Lead with Breakout and Follow Through Read More »
Performance within the Mag7 ETF is mixed with two clear leaders, two clear laggards and a downtrend. Apple and Nvidia have the strongest uptrends. Alphabet is consolidating within an uptrend and trying to turn up. Amazon is in a choppy uptrend with a tradable pullback underway. Meta and Microsoft are all over the place with volatile swings the last few months. Telsa is the basket case of the group with a long-term downtrend and bearish setup. $AAPL $NVDA $GOOGL $AMZN $META $MSFT $TSLA
Leaders, Laggards and the Weakest in MAG7 – Two Bullish Setups and One Bearish Read More »
Commodities, stocks and the Dollar are higher since March, while gold and bonds are lower. I picked March because this is when the war with Iran broke out and oil surged. The 12-month Oil Fund (USL) is up some 47% since March. Other commodity groups are also higher (base metals, copper and agriculture). $GLD $GDX $SLV $UST2Y $SPY $IWM $RSP $CPER $DBB $USL $SRUUF $BLOK
Rising Rates Weigh on Gold and Small-caps – GLD Hits Moment of Truth Read More »
Today’s report focuses on two stocks from the Healthcare Providers ETF (IHF) and two from the Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA). IHF is leading the market as it consolidates near its highs. HCA Corp and Universal Health Services show signs of bottoming over the last few months. Aerospace & Defense was leading the market in August, but took a hard hit over the last four weeks. Lockheed Martin and RTX Corp pulled back within the group and became oversold within their uptrends. $LMT $RTX $HCA $UHS
HCA and UHS Attempt to Bottom – LMT and RTX Become Oversold Read More »
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but oil, interest rates and inflation are taking their toll on parts of the market. Small-caps are bearing the brunt of recent selling pressure with large-caps and large-cap techs holding up better since August. Semis are at a moment of truth, while the AI/Tech ETFs are holding their breakouts. Elsewhere, I am seeing bullish setups in Regional Banks, Telecom, Healthcare Providers and Medical Devices. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $IWM $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $IHI $IHF $KRE
SPY-QQQ-XLK Hold Up – Semis Moment of Truth – MAGS Leads – 2 Healthcare ETFs Read More »
SPY is within 3% of a 52-week high, but small-caps took a hit and new lows are expanding. This expansion, however, has yet to derail a bullish signal from May 2025. Today’s report will review this bullish signal and show the key levels to watch. We will also set bear market thresholds for SPY and new lows. $SPY !NEWHISPX !NEWLOSPX $SPXHLP
SPY in Leading Uptrend, but New Lows Expand – Two Signals to Watch Read More »
The intermarket picture is negative for the average stock (equal-weights, small-caps and mid-caps). Rates are rising and this rise is accelerating. Rising oil prices are stoking inflation. Value and energy are leading within the stock market, while consumer discretionary and industrials move lower. Tech and semis are holding up well since August, and keeping SPY/QQQ afloat. Today’s report also covers gold, copper, uranium and blockchain. $IEF $UST2Y, $UST10Y, $XLY $GLD $CPER $SRUUF $BLOK
Bearish Intermarket – Gold Hits Setup Zone – Copper Leads – Blockchain Breakout Read More »
Technology, energy and utilities moved higher on Tuesday, while the other eight sectors closed lower. Performance was also lopsided within the technology sector. Semis (SOXX, SMH, DRAM) moved higher, while the MAG7 (MAGS), Software (IGV), Cloud (SKYY), Cybersecurity (CIBR) and Fintech (FINX) moved lower. Tuesday is just one day, but the split has been building since August. Tech and semis are holding up, but there are sizable pockets of weakness that include consumer discretionary and housing. $USL $XLE $XLU $IJR $IJH !GT200SPX
Oil-Energy Lead – Utes Hit Bullish Zone – Small-caps Correct – Breadth Takes a Hit Read More »
While there are some sizable pockets of weakness within the market and rolling rotations underway, the weight of the evidence remains bullish. It is still a bull market. Tech surged in April-May, corrected in June-July and resumed its leadership in August-September. Tech leadership came at the expense of industrials, utilities, housing and retail, which moved lower. Seasonally, September is one of the weakest months for stocks. Perhaps this seasonal pattern is already playing out in some of the more economically sensitive areas. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $AIQ $ARTY $IYZ $SKYY $IGV $CIBR
Tech-AI Lead in Rolling Rotation – Wedge Breakouts Hold for QQQ, XLK and Co. Read More »
The Semiconductor ETF fell pretty hard in July, but the decline was always viewed as a correction because it met the retracement requirements and formed a typical corrective pattern. Chartists looking for signals that a correction is ending can turn to Percent B and SMH %Above 50-day SMA. Both became oversold in July and one became oversold in early September. This means SMH is again setting up bullish as it corrects within a bigger uptrend. $SMH !GT40SMH
Using Breadth and BBands for Oversold Setups in the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Read More »
The Semiconductor ETFs (SMH & SOXX) and the Memory ETF (DRAM) broke out with surges into August and then corrected into early September. The August breakouts were medium-term bullish and the current corrections provide short-term setups. This report will identify the patterns at work, the key levels to watch and the one showing relative strength. $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $NVDA $TSM $MU
Semiconductor ETFs Set Up with Corrections – Plus Nvidia, Micron, Taiwan Semi Read More »
The Industrials SPDR was hit hard over the last two weeks, but the long-term trend remains up and oversold conditions are present. Today’s report will show a long-term breadth indicator to define the trading bias and three short-term breadth indicators to identify oversold conditions. Attention then turns to XLI’s largest industry group, the Aerospace & Defense. $XLI !GT200XLI !GT50XLI !GT20XLI $ITA
Breadth for Trading Bias and Oversold Conditions – Industrials and Aero/Defense Read More »
Commodities remain strong as a group. Oil is trading near new highs as the 12-month Oil Fund extends on its triangle breakout. Copper is consolidating near a 52-week high, the DB Agriculture ETF hit a new high and gold broke out in early August. Perhaps even more telling, middle distillates, such as heating oil and diesel are trading near new highs. $USL $USD $GLD $CPER $DBB $SRUUF $DBA
Energy, Ag and Metals Trend Higher – Dollar Breakdown – Uranium Throwback Read More »
Even though the weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, there are some sizable pockets of weakness in key areas. This weakness is exacerbated by strength in the energy sector, which is not the sector we want to see leading the market. The Energy SPDR hit a new high this week as the 12-month Oil Fund exceeded its summer highs. $XLE $XLK $IEF $UST10Y $JNK $XLY $XLC $ITB
Energy Leads – Rates Surge – Junk Bonds Break – Housing & Discretionary Hit Read More »
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but the macro picture is mixed as rates continue to rise, oil prices remain high and September seasonal patterns loom. Small-caps fell over the last two weeks as breadth weakened, while QQQ and XLK successfully defended their wedge breakouts. The Semiconductor ETFs are struggling and I am raising my re-evaluation levels for some of the AI ETFs. $UST2Y $UST10Y $USL $SPXA200R $SPXHLP $SPY $QQQ $XLK, $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $AIQ $ARTY $DTCR $IDGT $UFOX $IYZ $BLOK
Oil, Rates, Seasonality & Breadth – QQQ/XLK Test Breakouts – Semis Struggle Read More »
Led by weakness in the Aerospace & Defense ETF, the Industrials SPDR took a hit in the second half of August. Despite this hit, both ETFs are in long-term trends and setting up after short-term pullbacks. $XLI $SPY $SPXA200R
Industrials SPDR Pulls Back within Uptrend – Is this a Threat or an Opportunity? Read More »
Led by weakness in the Aerospace & Defense ETF, the Industrials SPDR took a hit in the second half of August. Despite this hit, both ETFs are in long-term trends and setting up after short-term pullbacks. Attention then turns to bullish setups in three Aerospace & Defense stocks: GE Aerospace, Lockheed Martin and Howmet. $XLI $ITA $GE $LMT $HWM
Aerospace/Defense Leads XLI Pullback, but Big Trends Are Up – 3 Stock Setups Read More »
The Home Construction and Homebuilders ETFs are lagging over the past year, but they caught fire in May-June with outsized moves and higher highs. These moves could signal the start of trend reversals. Both ETFs formed bullish continuation patterns and I am watching for breakouts. We will also look at the 10yr Yield, its correlation housing and three stocks. $ITB $XBH $UST10Y $XLRE $XLU $TAN $PHM $TOL $HD
Homebuilder ETFs Consolidate After Outsized Moves – Three Stocks Setting Up Read More »
Despite some concerns with seasonal patterns and rising rates, the weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. The Technology SPDR, Nasdaq 100 ETF, Semiconductor ETFs and AI-adjacent ETFs broke out with surges in early August. These ETFs pulled back over the last five days and many are testing their breakout zones. Failure to hold these breakouts would be negative and could weigh on the broader market. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $EWY $AIQ $ARTY $DTCR $IDGT $UFOX $IYZ
Nvidia, Semis and AI-adjacent ETFs Hold the Key for Tech and QQQ Read More »
Chartists missing a breakout can watch for a “throwback”, which offers a second chance to partake in the breakout. A throwback occurs when price breaks out, extends higher and then pulls back to the breakout zone, which turns first support. Price then turns back up and resumes its breakout. Today’s report will show a successful throwback and strong upturn in the Agribusiness ETF $MOO.
Agribusiness ETF Defends Breakout with Strong Upturn after Throwback Read More »