Tech ETFs Hold Flag Breakouts – Follow Up on Housing, Banks and Retail

Printer Friendly Format (charts print better in landscape)

Printer Friendly Format (charts print better in landscape)

This content is for subscribers. (Login or Subscribe)

Breadth not Ideal, but Net Bullish – Homebuilder Breakout could Bode well for 2026

By Arthur Hill, CMT

Market breadth is not very strong, but it is strong enough to support a bull market. At the very least, key breadth metrics are not net bearish. Today’s Chart Fix shows how to quantify signals using new highs, new lows and the percentage of stocks with golden crosses. We then dissect the breakout in the Homebuilders ETF, which could hold the key to broadening leadership in 2026.

Breadth not Ideal, but Net Bullish – Homebuilder Breakout could Bode well for 2026 Read More »

Gold/Silver Extend on Breakouts – Uranium Sets Up – Aero-Defense ETF Oversold

By Arthur Hill, CMT

Today’s report covers Gold, Silver, Gold/Silver Miners, Copper, Based Metals, Uranium, Bonds, Bitcoin and the Aerospace & Defense ETF, which has a bullish setup working. The chart below shows the precious metals complex leading since August. In fact, all ETFs on

Gold/Silver Extend on Breakouts – Uranium Sets Up – Aero-Defense ETF Oversold Read More »

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500 Breadth Models – Yields Spreads – Fed Policy

By Arthur Hill, CMT

The Market Regime page defines the stock market environment: bull or bear market. Three trend/breadth models quantify performance for stocks in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500. Yield spreads capture credit market conditions, while Treasury yield trends reflect Fed policy.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500 Breadth Models – Yields Spreads – Fed Policy Read More »

Autodesk ADSK, Quanta PWR, Freeport McMoRan FCX, Norfolk NSC and CSX

By Arthur Hill, CMT

Autodesk (ADSK) provides software and services for product development and manufacturing to the industrials sector. It has been a choppy ride since July, but the overall uptrend remains intact, and

Autodesk ADSK, Quanta PWR, Freeport McMoRan FCX, Norfolk NSC and CSX Read More »

Flag Breakouts in Tech-Related ETFs – Housing, Regional Banks and Retail Do an About Face

By Arthur Hill, CMT

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, despite sizable pockets of weakness within the stock market. SPY is above its rising 200-day SMA and held its October low (650). The most important benchmark for US stocks remains strong. SPX %Above 200-day SMA bounced off the 50% level and is currently at 60%. The cup

Flag Breakouts in Tech-Related ETFs – Housing, Regional Banks and Retail Do an About Face Read More »

3-step Process to Increase your Success Rate – Trend, Relative Performance and Chart Setup

By Arthur Hill, CMT

Successful entries are rarely accidents. The best trades come from a repeatable process that starts with long term trend identification, a relative performance assessment and a robust chart setup. Use this three-step framework to filter names, focus on leaders, and time entries with favorable reward to risk ratios.

3-step Process to Increase your Success Rate – Trend, Relative Performance and Chart Setup Read More »

Discretionary Lags – Speculative Names Thrown Out – Trend Signals within MAG7 & Utilities

By Arthur Hill, CMT

The stock market moved from offense to defense over the last few weeks. Speculative tech names led the market into October, but defensive names took over in November. Healthcare, consumer staples and gold are holding strong, while the ARK Innovation ETF breaks support and Microsoft

Discretionary Lags – Speculative Names Thrown Out – Trend Signals within MAG7 & Utilities Read More »

Copper Consolidates as DBB becomes Oversold – Bond and Uranium ETFs Set Up

By Arthur Hill, CMT

Asset class performance since August is quite telling. Precious metals related ETFs are leading the charge with the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) up some 46%. Copper (CPER), Base Metals (DBB) and Uranium (SRUUF) are in the middle of the pack with double digit gains. Stocks are at the low end with

Copper Consolidates as DBB becomes Oversold – Bond and Uranium ETFs Set Up Read More »

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500 Breadth Models – Yields Spreads – Fed Policy

By Arthur Hill, CMT

The Market Regime page defines the stock market environment: bull or bear market. Three trend/breadth models quantify performance for stocks in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500. Yield spreads capture credit market conditions, while Treasury yield trends reflect Fed policy.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500 Breadth Models – Yields Spreads – Fed Policy Read More »

Three Bullish Setups: Semiconductor, Cybersecurity and Gaming Software

By Arthur Hill, CMT

I like to see three timeframes when looking for trading setups. Today’s charts show a daily candlestick chart in the top window with the 200-day SMA, %B (20,2) and the price-relative (symbol/RSP ratio). %B is used to find oversold conditions within an uptrend, while the price-relative measures relative performance.

Three Bullish Setups: Semiconductor, Cybersecurity and Gaming Software Read More »

Tech Weakness Expands – Bearish Momentum Thrusts – Healthcare and Utes Hold Up

By Arthur Hill, CMT

Cracks are appearing in the technology sector and Nasdaq 100. This is an important development because these two were responsible for most of the gains within the S&P 500. Housing, regional banks and consumer discretionary were already leading lower.

Tech Weakness Expands – Bearish Momentum Thrusts – Healthcare and Utes Hold Up Read More »

Cracks within Tech – Bonds Outperform Bitcoin – Insurance Names Catch Strong Bid

By Arthur Hill, CMT

The market shows more signs of risk aversion with breakdowns in technology-related ETFs, strength in insurance and bonds, and a downtrend signal in Bitcoin. The Semiconductor ETF is holding up, but the Software ETF and ARK Innovation ETF are breaking down. Money is rotating from

Cracks within Tech – Bonds Outperform Bitcoin – Insurance Names Catch Strong Bid Read More »

Gold/Silver Surge from Oversold Levels – Bond/Uranium ETFs Set Up – Bitcoin Lags with Downtrend

By Arthur Hill, CMT

Precious metals continue to lead the pack with the Silver ETF (SLV) sporting the biggest gain over the last three months (+40%). Industrial metals are also outperforming stocks with the Copper ETF (CPER) and DB Base Metals ETF (DBB) up over 10%. QQQ is up a measly 7%. Even bonds are up with TLT gaining 3.65% and

Gold/Silver Surge from Oversold Levels – Bond/Uranium ETFs Set Up – Bitcoin Lags with Downtrend Read More »

Nucor NUE, Danaher DHR, Pfizer PFE, Northrop Grumman NOC, Norfolk Southern NSC and AES

By Arthur Hill, CMT

Nucor (NUE) is steel stock that is part of the Materials SPDR (XLB) and Metals & Mining SPDR (XME). XLB is a lagging sector because of the chemical industry, but XME is a leading group with a 65% year-to-date gain. The DJ US Steel Index ($DJUSST) is also leading with a 24.6% gain this year.

Nucor NUE, Danaher DHR, Pfizer PFE, Northrop Grumman NOC, Norfolk Southern NSC and AES Read More »

Some Warning Signs, but Tech ETFs Still Leading – As are Utes, Industrials, Healthcare

By Arthur Hill, CMT

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but there are large pockets of weakness within the market. 56.6% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, which means 43.4% are below and in long-term downtrends. Even though this is a rather large swath of the market, the cup

Some Warning Signs, but Tech ETFs Still Leading – As are Utes, Industrials, Healthcare Read More »

Rotation Investor NDX100 – Performance Metrics, Returns and Drawdowns

By Arthur Hill, CMT

The table below shows performance metrics for the Rotation Investor Nasdaq 100 Strategy (RO-Investor-NDX) and $NDX buy-and-hold. The strategy handily outperforms buy-and-hold (+18.03% vs +12.97%), and the strategy’s Maximum Drawdown (-21.52%) was less than half that of buy-and-hold

Rotation Investor NDX100 – Performance Metrics, Returns and Drawdowns Read More »

Rotation Investor SPX500 – Performance Metrics, Returns and Drawdowns

By Arthur Hill, CMT

The table below shows performance metrics for the S&P 500 Rotation Investor Strategy (RO-Investor-SPX) and $SPX buy-and-hold. The strategy outperformed buy-and-hold with a significantly higher Compound Annual Return (CAR): +13.39% vs +7.76% (blue shading). Just as important, the strategy’s Maximum Drawdown

Rotation Investor SPX500 – Performance Metrics, Returns and Drawdowns Read More »

Rotation Investor ETF – Performance Metrics, Returns and Drawdowns,

By Arthur Hill, CMT

The table below shows performance metrics for the Rotation Investor ETF Strategy (RO-Investor-ETF) and $SPX buy-and-hold. The strategy handily outperforms buy-and-hold (+12.73% vs 7.71%), and the strategy’s Maximum Drawdown (-21.71%) is less than half that of buy-and-hold (-56.40%). The Average Drawdown was

Rotation Investor ETF – Performance Metrics, Returns and Drawdowns, Read More »

QQQ and SPY Trigger Bearish Momentum Signals

By Arthur Hill, CMT

Stocks and ETFs can become overbought and remain overbought during strong uptrends. We see this play out in QQQ as it moved above the upper Bollinger Band (200,2) several times and continued higher. Bollinger Bands (200,2) are two standard

QQQ and SPY Trigger Bearish Momentum Signals Read More »

Defensive Sector Stands Strong as Economically Sensitive Sector Breaks Down

By Arthur Hill, CMT

Stock market performance remains mixed with a high percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading below their 200-day SMAs. This number has yet to exceed 50%, but should be watched because the Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors show deterioration. Despite a mixed market, the Healthcare sector is rising above the

Defensive Sector Stands Strong as Economically Sensitive Sector Breaks Down Read More »