Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video
The Composite Breadth Model is bullish at +5, but there are splits when looking at the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA for the different indexes and yield spreads. Small-caps are underperforming and the CCC spread shows stress at the low end of the bond market. I am watching high beta ETFs for potential breakouts that would signal risk-on in the stock market. Right now, however, we are seeing money move into defensive groups with breakouts in ETFs relative to low volatility, healthcare, staples and utilities.
Broad Market Analysis
- Composite Breadth Model is Positive
- %Above 200-day SMA Indicators Show Split Market
- BBB and CCC Spreads Remain Elevated and Show Stress
- 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Consolidates below Resistance (TLT)
- Dollar Swings Lower (UUP)
- Gold Grinds Higher after Becoming Overbought (GLD, SIL)
- Oil Consolidates with Tight Flag at Resistance (USO)
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups
- Long-term Trend is Choppy for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY)
- Short-term Overbought Condition Warrants Caution (SPY)
- S&P 500 EW ETF Hits Moment of Truth (RSP)
- High-quality versus High-beta (SPHQ, SPHB)
- Watching ARKK, FINX and IPAY for Clues on High-beta Trade
- XLK and QQQ Edge Lower after Becoming Short-term Overbought
- Semis Stall as Software Extends (SOXX, IGV)
- Housing and Retail Bounce after Hard Throwbacks (ITB, XRT)
- Water ETFs Bounce after Throwbacks (PHO, CGW)
- Aerospace & Defense ETF Holds Bounce off Support Zone (PPA)
- Breakouts in Defensive ETFs (SPLV, XLV, IHF, XLP, PBJ, XLU)
- Biotech iShares Extends on Breakout (IBB)
- Platinum ETF Maintains Upswing (PLTM)
- Gold and Silver Miners ETFs Are Very Overbought (GDX, SIL)
- Setting Correction Resistance for the Copper ETF (CPER)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!