A Winner is Emerging in the Battle for the Trend s (Free)

Buyers and sellers are slugging it out for control of the long-term trend for the S&P 500. This battle is raging near the 200-day SMA, which is perhaps the most widely followed long-term moving average. The S&P 500 is also the most widely followed benchmark for US stocks.

This is a powerful combination and market participants should take notice. Good things are more likely to happen when above the 200-day SMA (uptrends) and bad things are more likely to happen when below the 200-day (downtrends). It is all about odds and the odds are shifting in favor of the bears.

The indicator window shows an oscillator that measures the percentage difference between the 5-day SMA and the 200-day SMA. It is green when the 5-day is above the 200-day and red when the 5-day is below. This makes it easy to see crosses and the percentage distance between the two SMAs. The 5-day SMA was 5% or more above the 200-day from July 2020 until January 2022. These two dips below zero in the last four weeks show that weakness is spreading to large caps.