Weekend Video – Big Moves in Bonds, Gold and the Dollar trigger Signs of Rotation within Stock Market (Premium)

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Signs of rotation suddenly appeared in the markets with the Treasury bond ETFs falling sharply and the 10-yr yield surging. The Dollar followed yields higher, while the Gold SPDR followed bonds lower. Within the stock market, we saw strength in banks lift small-caps and weakness in XLY and XLK weigh on the S&P 500 SPDR. Elsewhere, the S&P 500 EW ETF and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR are going for breakouts, the Semiconductor ETFs are leading, the EV ETFs broke out and the Sports Betting iGaming ETF surged. Today’s video will also address the difference between discretionary analysis and systematic signals using the Regional Bank ETF as an example because it broke out as StochClose triggered bearish.

Seasonal Patterns: Monthly and Best/Worst 6 Months (article/video)

Trading Corrections: Identifying and trading the falling wedge.

Exit Strategies: Indicators, riding the trend, using the ATR Trailing Stop.  

Broad Market Notes

  • SPY and QQQ Tag New Highs
  • IWM Remains Range Bound
  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bullish
  • Yield Curves continue to Widen a Little
  • Fed Balance Sheet Expands a Fraction
  • Oil Test Support with Oversold Condition
  • TLT Falls as 10yr Yield Goes for Breakout
  • GLD Turns Down at 200-day
  • Dollar Goes for Breakout

ETF Highlights

  • Discretionary Analysis versus Systematic StochClose
  • RSP and MDY Go for Breakouts (observational)
  • Wedge Continues to Rise for IWM
  • XLF Breaks Out as XLI Falls Short
  • XLE Holds Gap as Others Fail (XES, XOP)
  • XLB Holds Wedge Breakout
  • Several ETFs with Strong Uptrends & Monitoring Phase
  • XLY and FDN Hold Down Gaps
  • SOXX, SMH and FIVG Hit New Highs
  • IGN Stalls after Breakout
  • FINX Gets Oversold Bounce
  • Housing ETFs Hold Wedge Breakouts
  • Infrastructure ETF Holds Breakout
  • Bank ETFs Break out with Huge Moves
  • Healthcare Providers ETF Fails to Hold Breakout
  • Copper Fails, but Miners Hold Break Out
  • Steel and Metals ETFs Break Out
  • Electric Vehicle ETFs Hold Breakouts
  • BETZ Goes for Breakout
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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