Even with the big rebound last week, the vast majority of stocks are below their 200 and 150 day SMAs. Only 23% of S&P 1500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs (77% below), and only 20% are above their 150-day

The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and the bounce over the last four days is considered an oversold bounce. Our short-term breadth thrust indicators have yet to trigger. Until these indicators trigger, I will consider this a

The analysis mode remains macro because the weight of the evidence is still bearish for stocks. Moreover, the markets are unhinged with stocks, commodities, currencies and Treasury bonds fluctuating wildly. Chaos makes chart analysis exceptionally difficult. Perhaps there is opportunity

This market regime report weighs the evidence to determine the state of the stock market. Are we in a bull market or bear market? We start with the long-term trends for three major index ETFs (SPY,QQQ,RSP). Attention then turns to

Everything, well, almost everything, fell the last four trading days. This includes the gold and US Treasury Bonds. The Dollar was hit hard, which means other currencies gained. Stocks, industrial metals, oil, crypto and foreign stocks were all down the

Before looking at the current extremes, keep in mind that the weight of the evidence on the Market Regime page is bearish. We are in a bear market, and bear market rules apply. Support levels are less likely to hold

Stocks are in a freefall with selling pressure spreading into industrial metals and other economically sensitive commodities. There are few places to hide in bear markets, and the list of alternatives continues to shrink. Bitcoin, an alternative, is holding up

Today’s report covers the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs. Gold continues to lead, but looks increasingly extended. Industrial metals are under pressure as copper turns down after a parabolic move. Agriculture is holding its breakout, while bonds are poised to

Charles Dow identified three market trends. First, the primary trend is the major trend at work. This is the long-term trend. As noted in the Market Regime report, the weight of the evidence is bearish and this applies to the

Short-term, the stock market became oversold in mid March and ripe for a bounce. Longer term, however, the weight of the evidence is bearish and the major index ETFs are in downtrends (SPY, QQQ, RSP). This means we are looking

Today’s report covers the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs. Gold continues to lead the markets as it trades near all time highs. Copper is next in line as it goes parabolic and nears overbought levels. Bonds are confused with the

The major index ETFs broke down in March, became oversold and got oversold bounces. Long-term trend reversals remain for SPY, QQQ and XLK. This means the recent bounces are counter-trend moves within bigger downtrends. ETFs related to housing, retail and

This is an update for the Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicators, which were featured on March 21st. The S&P 500 and S&P 1500 Zweig Breadth Thrust indicators became oversold with moves below -20% on March 13th. The black arrows on

Stocks broke down with deep declines into mid March (11-13). These deep declines led to short-term oversold conditions, which primed the pump for the current bounce. At this point, I consider this an oversold bounce, as opposed to a bullish

Today’s report covers the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs. Gold continues to lead the markets with strength transferring to the Gold Miners. The only concern is the overbought condition, which is fast approaching. Copper surged to a new high and