What Happens to Bitcoin Should QQQ Correct?

At the bottom of the table, the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV) have the weakest correlations to SPY (<. 10). These two may be the most immune to a correction in SPY.

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Bitcoin, QQQ and Correlation

But what about equity alternatives, such as Bitcoin? For clues on Bitcoin,  chartists can compare performance and use correlation analysis. The chart below shows Price Performance for the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) in blue and QQQ in pink. IBIT is the clear winner since January 2024 with a 134% gain. QQQ is up a meager 37.5% (LOL).

The blue shading shows periods when they rose together and the pink shading shows a period when they fell together. Rising and falling together means they are positively correlated. This correlation is especially strong since late March 2025.

The indicator window quantifies this correlation using the Correlation Coefficient (65). This indicator was negative in July-August 2024, but positive since September 2024 and above .50 since March 2025. This shows a strong positive correlation the last five months, which makes sense because IBIT and QQQ are risk-on assets. As such, they will likely rise and fall together.

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Chart Mania – 23 ATR Move in QQQ – Metals Lead 2025 – XLV Oversold – XLU Breakout – ITB Moment of Truth

Here are some charts that reflect our areas of focus this week at TrendInvestorPro. SPY and QQQ are leading the market, but the tech trade is looking extended and ripe for a rest. Small-caps are still underperforming large-caps. Even though Utilities are not leading in percentage terms, XLU is leading

Chart Mania – 23 ATR Move in QQQ – Metals Lead 2025 – XLV Oversold – XLU Breakout – ITB Moment of Truth Read More »

How to Improve your Trading Odds and Increase Opportunities

Chartists can improve their odds and increase the number of opportunities by trading short-term bullish setups within bigger trends. The first order of business is to identify the long-term trend using a trend-following indicator. Second, chartist can turn to more granular analysis to find short-term bullish setups. Today’s example will use the Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY).

How to Improve your Trading Odds and Increase Opportunities Read More »

Lagging Mid-cap ETF Hits its Moment of Truth  

The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) is trading at a moment of truth as its 5-day SMA returns to the 200-day SMA. A bearish trend signal triggered in early March. Despite a strong bounce from early April to mid May, this signal remains in force because it has yet to be proven otherwise. Today’s report will show how to quantify signals and reduce whipsaws using the percentage difference between two SMAs.

Lagging Mid-cap ETF Hits its Moment of Truth   Read More »

Tech ETFs are Leading Since April, but Another Group is Leading YTD

QQQ and tech ETFs are leading the surge off the April low, but there is another group leading year-to-date. Year-to-date performance is important because it includes two big events: the stock market decline from mid February to early April and the steep surge into early June. We need to combine these two events for a complete performance picture.

Tech ETFs are Leading Since April, but Another Group is Leading YTD Read More »

SPY Recaptures 200-day – Tips to Reduce Whipsaws and Improve Performance

SPY and QQQ crossed above their 200-day SMAs with big moves on Monday, and held above these long-term moving averages the entire week. The V-Reversal was extraordinary and SPY seems short-term overbought, but this cross above the 200 day SMA cross is a bullish signal for the most important market benchmark. Despite a bullish signal, long-term moving averages are

SPY Recaptures 200-day – Tips to Reduce Whipsaws and Improve Performance Read More »

Bottoming Process – Capitulation, Short and Medium Term Thrusts, Regime Change

The market does not always follow the same script or sequence, but bear markets end with a bottoming process that often goes in stages. First, there is the capitulation phase, which suggests that selling pressure reached extremes and a bottom may be close. There was a capitulation setup in early April. Second, short-term thrust indicators mark a sharp recovery after an

Bottoming Process – Capitulation, Short and Medium Term Thrusts, Regime Change Read More »

Equities? Fuhgeddaboudit! Alternative Assets are Leading

Trading is all about the odds. Trade when the odds are in your favor. Exercise patience and stand aside when the odds are NOT in your favor. Stocks are in a bear market and the vast majority of names are trading below their 200-day SMAs. Clearly, the odds are NOT in our favor for equities and equity ETFs. Traders need to look elsewhere. Today’s report will highlight some non-equity leaders and analyze Bitcoin as it sets up.

Equities? Fuhgeddaboudit! Alternative Assets are Leading Read More »

Performance Profile Paints Different Pictures for Commodity and Equity ETFs

The performance profile for 2025 says a lot about the state of the market. Commodity-related ETFs are leading, non-cyclical equity ETFs are holding up the best and cyclical names are performing the worst. Clearly, this is not a positive picture for the stock market. This report will show how to interpret the performance profile and separate the leaders from the laggards using a ChartList.

Performance Profile Paints Different Pictures for Commodity and Equity ETFs Read More »

Commodity and Healthcare Related ETFs Lead in 2025 – Bullish Breakout in Biotechs

2025 is off to a rough start for stocks, but there are still some pockets of strength in the market. Year-to-date, SPY is down 1.73%, QQQ is down around 4% and the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) is down over 6%. ETFs with smaller losses show relative strength (less weakness), but ETFs with year-to-date gains show relative

Commodity and Healthcare Related ETFs Lead in 2025 – Bullish Breakout in Biotechs Read More »

Small-caps Trigger Bearish, but Large-caps Hold Uptrend and Present an Opportunity

The Russell 2000 ETF triggered a bearish trend signal this week and continues to underperform S&P 500 SPDR, which remains with a bullish trend signal. Today’s report shows the Keltner Channel signals in each. SPY is currently correcting within an uptrend and pullbacks within uptrends are opportunities

Small-caps Trigger Bearish, but Large-caps Hold Uptrend and Present an Opportunity Read More »

Stash that Flash Right in the Trash – 3 Prerequisites for Chartists – SPY Bullish Pattern

The news cycle is in high gear lately, leading to some extra volatility. Traders reacting to the news are getting whipsawed, while chartists remain focused on what really matters. Price. Price isn’t everything, it is the only thing. News, rumors, fundamentals, the Fed, government policy and

Stash that Flash Right in the Trash – 3 Prerequisites for Chartists – SPY Bullish Pattern Read More »

Cybersecurity Makes Yet Another Statement

The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) has been leading the market for a solid four months and recorded yet another new high this week. Chartists looking to take advantage of this leadership can use two timeframes: one to establish the absolute and relative trends, and another to identify tradable pullbacks along the way. Note that CIBR has been on our radar for four months and was featured in October.

Cybersecurity Makes Yet Another Statement Read More »

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