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The bull market remains in play with the Composite Breadth Model bullish, yield spreads narrow and the Fed balance sheet surging to yet another new high. Participation started broadening a few weeks go with mid-caps and small-caps breaking out to new highs. This week we saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield surge off its rising 200-day and a rising yield is generally positive for small-caps and banks, on a relative performance basis. Elsewhere, the Dollar extended its uptrend and gold broke out with a big move. Many ETFs in our universe are in the middle of their trends and there are not very many setups right now. ETFs related to Small-caps, Industrials, Infrastructure, Materials, Banks and Housing broke out of big consolidations in September-October. ETFs related to Technology and Electric Vehicles hit new highs and continue to lead. The copper-related ETFs broke out this week after throwbacks to support. XLC and FDN could be setting up for a bounce, and IBUY may be putting in a bottom.
Trading Corrections: [2] Identifying and trading the falling wedge.
Exit Strategies: [3] Indicators, riding the trend, using the ATR Trailing Stop.
Broad Market Notes
- Composite Breadth Model Remains Bullish
- Fed Balance Sheet Surges to Another New High
- Yield Spreads Show No Signs of Stress
- SPY and QQQ Lead with New Highs this Week
- Mid-caps and Small-caps Remain with Strong Breakouts
- Micro-cap ETF Challenges Channel Line
- 10-yr Treasury Yield and Relative Performance (IWM, KRE, QQQJ)
- TLT Reverses Upswing within Triangle
- 10-yr Treasury Yield Surges off 200-day
- Gold Breaks Summer Highs (SLV Breaks August High)
- Dollar Maintains Uptrend
- Oil Pulls Back within Bigger Uptrend
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:
- ETF Ranking and Trend Signal Table
- Leading and Short-term Extended: SKYY, CIBR, IGV, SOXX, LIT, REMX, URA, KBRN
- Leading and Short-term Extended: CARZ, IDRV, DRIV
- Multi-month Correction, Sept Breakout, New Highs: KRE, KBE
- Multi-month Correction, Oct Breakout, New Highs: XLI, IFRA, XLB, XRT, XHB, MOO, DBA
- Multi-month Correction, Oct Breakout: ITB, IYT, PBJ, XME
- September New High, Pullback, October Breakout: XLV, REMX, PHO
- Summer Correction, October Breakout: QCLN, TAN (plus ICLN)
- Copper/Metals ETFs with Breakouts: COPX, CPER, DBB
- Short-term Bull Flag/Pennant: XLF, XLU, KIE, IYR, REZ, IHI
- Energy ETFs Stall/Pullback: XLE, XES, XOP, FCG, AMLP
- Multi-month Correction, Shaky Breakout: ITA, JETS
- Short-term Oversold: XLC, FDN, BETZ
- Very Oversold and Stabilizing: BDRY
- Bottoming?: IBUY
- Biotechs Being Biotechs: IBB, XBI