System Trader – Reports

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System Trader Reports

SystemTrader – Skip the Noise, Focus on the Signal, Effectively Use the 200-day SMA with $SPX & $NDX (Parts 1&2 – Premium)

The S&P 500 is battling the 200-day SMA with four crosses over the last eleven days. We are also seeing a rise in volatility as this market benchmark plunged 5.86% in nine days (18-27 October) and then surged 5.85% the last five days. With such conditions, it is a good time to step back and look for ways to filter the noise.

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System Trader Reports

Why Use Market Filters?, Indicator Settings Are Double-Edged Swords, the Best Performing Market Filter (Premium)

Today’s report will dive into the market filter, which is used to define bull and bear markets. Market filters are an important part of trend-following and momentum strategies that trade stocks and stock-based ETFs. The Composite Breadth Model has not worked well over the last 15 months, but this is a relatively short timeframe in the grand scheme

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System Trader Reports

Introduction to Trend-Following (revised) – Assumptions, Expectations, Indicators, Backtests and Conclusions – with video (Premium)

This article will dive into trend following. We will start by going over some key assumptions and expectations to consider when implementing a trend-following strategy. What are realistic Win Rates and Profit/Loss ratios? Attention then turns to selecting a timeframe suitable to trend-following. I will then explain 10 trend-following indicators

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System Trader Reports

Sector Breadth Models versus a Simple Trend Following Technique (Premium)

Sometimes what seems logical and helpful, is not and needs to be reconsidered. This is my conclusion with the sector breadth models. They are logical, and perhaps helpful at times, but they do not add value when it comes to timing trends in the sector SPDRs. A simple StochClose strategy performed better overall. This article will quantify signals for three breadth models using the sector SPDRs.

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System Trader Reports

Turn of the Month Strategy – Strong Long-term Performance, Beats Buy-Hold, Some Weak Months

The turn of the month shows a strong bullish bias with an extremely stable equity curve that really took off the last few years. This strategy, which is only invested 38% of the time, outperformed buy and hold with a higher Compound Annual Return. Overall, the eight day percentage change at the turn of the month is positive 68% of the time for SPY. Despite strong numbers overall, February is weakest month when testing over the last twenty years, and we just happen to be in February.

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System Trader Reports

Picking Moving Average Combos that Adapt to Changing Environments – Comparing Daily, Weekly and Monthly Signals

This article will explore and backtest different moving average combinations on the S&P 500 SPDR over the last twenty years. Most moving average strategies work great when SPY trends, regardless of the period settings. However, SPY (aka, the market) does not always trend and trends are not uniform. Some are short and fast, while others are long and steady. This means we need moving averages that can best adapt to different environments.

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Videos – Index, Sector & Industry Group ETFs – Commodity, Bond & Bitcoin ETFs

We have two videos on this page. First, there is a comprehensive video covering index, sector and industry group ETFs (equity ETFs). SPY and QQQ broke down, a couple sectors are holding up and a handful of industry group ETFs have yet to break their January lows. We then turn commodity ETFs, which are showing strength, as our bond ETFs. This vid conclude with the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT).

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Stock Report – Shaky Market – 3 Defense Stocks – Off-Price Retailer – Healthcare Leader

There are five new setups today and some updates to prior setups. We start with three stocks from the defense industry because the Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is one of the leading industry group ETFs. I am also featuring a pharma stock (BMY) because the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) is showing relative strength here in 2025. And finally, we have an off-price retailer (TJX). Even though it is

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ETF Video – SPY/QQQ hit Moment of truth – A Clear Tech Leader – Healthcare Holds Strong

There are sizable and concerning pockets of weakness within the stock market, but SPY and QQQ are still in uptrends and testing key levels. The EW S&P 500 ETF, Technology SPDR and Industrials SPDR joined the breakdown list, along with small-caps (IJR) and mid-caps (MDY). One tech ETF stands out. We are also seeing long-term uptrends and relative strength in these eight ETFs (XLF, XLC, XLU, CIBR, IHI, AMLP, IYZ, GLD).

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Stock Report – Two NatGas Trades – A Leading Defense Play –  A Bullish Semiconductor

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but this is not a bull market that lifts all boats. I am also seeing splits within sectors and industry groups. This is a selective bull market. Large-caps are holding up better in February and small-caps are lagging. The tech sector and Nasdaq 100 are also holding up relatively well, even with the swoon over the last five days.

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Market Regime Report/Video – SPX Breadth Holds – S&P 1500 Breadth Lags – 10yr Yield Breaks

Breadth weakened into January as the market corrected, but then rebounded into February with NDX breadth leading the way. S&P 1500 breadth remains the weakest of the three (blame small-caps and mid-caps). This week’s big shift is the breakout in the 7-10 Yr Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and the break down in the 10-yr Treasury Yield. Lower rates may seem positive for stocks, but

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ETF Report – High Beta Names Hit – Risk-Off Names Rise – Lower Highs in Key Groups – GLD Strong

Stocks were hit hard the last three days with the high-beta names leading lower. Defensive groups (Healthcare, Staples, Utes) and bonds picked up the slack. Even though the weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, there are some sizable pockets of weakness with lower highs forming in key groups (banks, industrials, software, infrastructure), as well as fresh new lows in housing ETFs. Gold is holding strong, but Bitcoin is under pressure as part of the risk-on trade.

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ETF Video – XLK New High – AI and Cybersecurity Lead – XLI & PAVE Turn Up – Bitcoin Gets Quiet

Don’t look now, but tech is back with XLK joining QQQ in the new high parade. We are also seeing new highs in ETFs related to Cybersecurity and AI, as well as breakout extensions in Software (IGV) and Cloud (SKYY). Semis continue to lag, but we will take a second look at the SMH chart with a longer timeframe. Elsewhere, ETFs related to industrials are turning back up, defense ETFs pulled back after new highs and the banking ETFs are holding their breakouts.

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