Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video
The stock market is mixed, very mixed. The tape is bearish because the Composite Breadth Model is negative, but large-caps are holding up because the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is above the 200-day SMA. Yield spreads remain elevated and show stress in the credit markets, but the Fed balance sheet expanded by $394 billion over the last two weeks. It is the tape and yield spreads versus large-caps and the Fed. Tech and precious metals are leading. Housing, Cloud Computing and ARK Innovation have corrective patterns working. Copper and base metals are going for breakouts.
Broad Market Analysis
- Don’t Fight the Tape vs Don’t Fight the Fed
- Composite Breadth Model is Negative
- 5/200 Cross for S&P 500 is Positive
- Yield Spreads Remain Elevated and Show Stress
- Fed Balance Sheet Surges with Big Expansion
- 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Stalls within Channel (TLT)
- Dollar Swings Lower (UUP)
- Precious Metals Turn Volatile after Big Surge (GLD, SLV, PLTM)
- Gold Miners ETF Extends on Breakout (GDX, SIL)
- Oil Breaks Gets Oversold Bounce back to Support Break (USO)
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups
- The Wedge Break Remains for SPY
- Key Level for Up Swing in SPY
- The Tight Stop or the Wide Stop for QQQ
- XLK Holds Flag Breakout
- Semis, Software and Cyber Holding Up (SOXX, IGV, CIBR)
- Make or break Levels for SKYY and ARKK
- Video Games eSports ETF Extends on Breakout (ESPO)
- Home Construction and Housing ETFs Correct (ITB, XHB)
- Defense and Water ETFs Test Support (PPA, PHO, plus CQW)
- Copper and Base Metals Go for Breakouts (CPER, DBB)
- Watching the Risk-Off Sectors (XLV, XLP, XLU)
- Biotech ETF Remains Short of Breakout (IBB)
- Retail and EW C-Discretionary Lead Lower (XRT, RCD)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!