Weekend Video – Stock/Bond Seasonality, Staples and Utes Lead, Old Economy ETFs Break Out (Premium)

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The stock market remains in bull mode overall with some 84% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day SMAs. Recent breakouts in equal-weights and mid-caps bode well, but short-term bearish patterns in small-caps and micro-caps should be watched. We are also in a seasonally weak period for stocks and a seasonally strong period for bonds. Several old economy ETFs broke out over the last few weeks and these breakouts are holding. Thus, they are bullish until proven otherwise and we will identify the key levels to watch going forward.

Seasonal Patterns: Monthly and Best/Worst 6 Months (article/video)

Trading Corrections: Identifying and trading the falling wedge.

Exit Strategies: Indicators, riding the trend, using the ATR Trailing Stop.  

Broad Market Notes

  • It’s Still a Large-cap World
  • SPY Notches another New High
  • QQQ Remains Near 52-week High
  • Equal-weights and Mid-caps Break Out
  • Small and Micro Caps Form Short-Term Bearish Patterns
  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bullish
  • Seasonal Patterns for Stocks and Bonds
  • Yield Spreads Widen from Low Levels
  • Feb Balance Sheet Hits Yet another New High
  • TLT Gets Oversold Bounce as within Bond Market Confusion
  • Gold Swings with Treasury Bonds
  • Dollar Remains Range Bound

ETF Highlights

  • Money Moves into Old Economy Stocks
  • Steady Uptrends: XLRE, IYR, REZ, XLV, PHO
  • Choppy Uptrends: SOXX, SMH, QQQ, XLK, IHI
  • Finance, Industrials and Materials Break Out and Follow Thru
  • Energy SPDR Holds Gap, but Does not Follow Thru
  • Staples and Utes Hit New Highs (Hmm..)
  • Tech ETFs with Triangle Breakouts and Extended Conditions (IGV, CIBR, SKYY)
  • Internet ETF Becomes Short-term Oversold in Uptrend (FDN)
  • Housing ETFs Extend on Breakouts (ITB, XHB)
  • Bank ETFs Extend on Breakouts (KRE, KBE)
  • Biotech ETF Gets Wild after Big Move (IBB)
  • Oil Tests Support Zone
  • Energy ETFs Form Short-term Bearish Pattern (XES, XOP, FCG)
  • COPX Breaks out of Wedge as Copper Consolidates
  • Steel ETFs Follow Through on Breakouts (SLX, XME)
  • Agriculture ETFs Break Out (DBA, MOO)
  • EV ETFs Hold Breakouts (CARZ, DRIV, IDRV)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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