Weekend Video – Indecision, Whipsaws and Headfakes, Semis and Tech Lag, Old School Leads, Correction Odds (Premium)

The stock market has been churning the last few weeks with indecisive price action producing a fair number of whipsaws and head fakes. The old school ETFs associated with industrials, materials, REITs, housing, steel, metals and agriculture continue to lead. The high-beta high-flyers of 2020 continue to lag and many did not even make it back above their mid March highs. These include the ARK ETFs, clean energy and cannabis. We are now starting to see relative and absolute weakness in semiconductors, and technology is starting to lag. Combined with an overextended S&P 500 and lagging IWM, the odds of a corrective period continue to increase. Corrections can be frustrating because oversold bounces do not get follow through and breakouts do not hold. In short, corrections are when drawdowns occur so tread carefully. The video bullet points are below:

  • SPY Hits New High 6% Gain in 56 Days
  • IWM Continues to Stall with -1.5% Loss in 56 Days
  • Oil Gets Short-term Breakout Near Long-term Resistance
    Gold Consolidates after Breakout
  • Spreads Flatten as Balance Sheet Contracts a Small Amount
  • 4th Longest Bull Run and 3rd Biggest Gain in 15 Years
  • StochClose Rankings, Signals and New Highs
  • Oversold Conditions Can Last Weeks

ETF Highlights

  • EW Sectors Show Broad Strength
  • Ag, Metals, REITs and Large-caps Lead
  • All ARKs are Under Water since March 15th
  • A Tale of 3 Semiconductor ETFs
  • IJR and the Moment of truth
  • XLK Breaks Mid April Low (benchmark low)
  • XLI, XLF, XLC, XLB, XLRE Hit New Highs
  • IGV, FDN, SKYY, FINX and HERO Decline from Retracement Zones
  • Setting Stops for KRE and KBE
  • ITB, XHB, IYR and REZ Extend to New Highs
  • FAN Breaks Down as ICLN Tests Support
  • IBB Holds Breakout – IHI and IHF Pull Back
  • Copper, Aluminum and Zinc Hit New Highs
  • XME Turns Choppy
  • URA Holds Upturn
  • CARZ Triggers Stop as DRIV Weakens
  • China Gets Cold Feet
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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