Video, ChartBook Update and Chart Notes

ChartBook Notes

– SPY is up 7.25% since its low on October 2nd (27 days ago).

– SPY hit a new high again this week and we are in a bull market.

– $SPX short-term trend is up until proven otherwise. Watch SPX ROC(1), ATR(2) and %Above 20-day EMA for clues.

– Industrials and Finance led the new high list this week.

– The Fed balance sheet expanded again as SOMA surged.

– SPY broke out with a big move the last five weeks.

– Notable New Highs: SPY, RSP, QQQ, MDY, XLK, XLI, XLF, XLB, SOXX, KBE, EFA

– The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) extended its uptrend and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) forged a higher high for the first time in six months.

– MTUM (momentum) led USMV (min volatility) with a 3.94% gain the last 27 days (vs 1.31%).

– XLY and XLC have yet to hit new highs, but the swings within the consolidation patterns remain up.

– XLK, XLI and XLF are up 10-11% over the last 27 trading days.

– XLU and XLRE broke short-term support and are lagging over the last six weeks.

– The Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY) broke above its October high.

– SOXX (+14.24) and HACK (+10.13%) are leading the tech-related ETFs over the last 27 days.

– The FinTech ETF (FINX) bounced on Thursday-Friday and is poised to challenge wedge resistance.

– The Internet ETF (FDN) consolidated the last three weeks and underperformed. Watch 137 for a breakout.

– The Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY) is making a bid to break resistance and end its August to October correction.

– The Software ETF (IGV) broke its wedge line last week and its October high this week.

– The Home Construction ETF (ITB) talled the last three weeks to digest the 18% advance from early August to late – October.

– The Bank SPDR (KBE) and Regional Bank ETF (KRE) broke out of 6-month falling channels and exceeded their September highs.

– The Insurance ETF (KIE) broke out of a triangle consolidation this week.

– The REIT ETF (IYR) broke its September lows and is lagging the last six weeks.

– Solar Energy ETF (TAN) broke support in early November and is lagging the market.

– The Biotech ETF (IBB) is holding its breakout and the Biotech SPDR (XBI) is challenging resistance from the September high.

– The Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) found support in October-November and could be poised for an oversold bounce.

– The breakout attempts in the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) failed, the falling wedge remains and the ETF is a laggard.

– The Gold SPDR (GLD) failed to hold its breakout and broke short-term support this week.

– The Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) has a potential double bottom in play and the ETF is challenging resistance.

– The Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) is still doing well and close to new highs.

– The Preferred Stock ETF (PFF) is not doing well as it fell the last two weeks.

– The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) failed to hold the early November breakout and extended its two month downtrend.

– Bonds are underperforming stocks overall and less appealing in a broadening bull market.

– The Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) became oversold in mid October and got a mean-reversion bounce/breakout.

Enjoy your weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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