Video, ChartBook Update and Chart Notes
– SPY is up 7.25% since its low on October 2nd (27 days ago).
– SPY hit a new high again this week and we are in a bull market.
– $SPX short-term trend is up until proven otherwise. Watch SPX ROC(1), ATR(2) and %Above 20-day EMA for clues.
– Industrials and Finance led the new high list this week.
– The Fed balance sheet expanded again as SOMA surged.
– SPY broke out with a big move the last five weeks.
– Notable New Highs: SPY, RSP, QQQ, MDY, XLK, XLI, XLF, XLB, SOXX, KBE, EFA
– The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) extended its uptrend and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) forged a higher high for the first time in six months.
– MTUM (momentum) led USMV (min volatility) with a 3.94% gain the last 27 days (vs 1.31%).
– XLY and XLC have yet to hit new highs, but the swings within the consolidation patterns remain up.
– XLK, XLI and XLF are up 10-11% over the last 27 trading days.
– XLU and XLRE broke short-term support and are lagging over the last six weeks.
– The Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY) broke above its October high.
– SOXX (+14.24) and HACK (+10.13%) are leading the tech-related ETFs over the last 27 days.
– The FinTech ETF (FINX) bounced on Thursday-Friday and is poised to challenge wedge resistance.
– The Internet ETF (FDN) consolidated the last three weeks and underperformed. Watch 137 for a breakout.
– The Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY) is making a bid to break resistance and end its August to October correction.
– The Software ETF (IGV) broke its wedge line last week and its October high this week.
– The Home Construction ETF (ITB) talled the last three weeks to digest the 18% advance from early August to late – October.
– The Bank SPDR (KBE) and Regional Bank ETF (KRE) broke out of 6-month falling channels and exceeded their September highs.
– The Insurance ETF (KIE) broke out of a triangle consolidation this week.
– The REIT ETF (IYR) broke its September lows and is lagging the last six weeks.
– Solar Energy ETF (TAN) broke support in early November and is lagging the market.
– The Biotech ETF (IBB) is holding its breakout and the Biotech SPDR (XBI) is challenging resistance from the September high.
– The Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) found support in October-November and could be poised for an oversold bounce.
– The breakout attempts in the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) failed, the falling wedge remains and the ETF is a laggard.
– The Gold SPDR (GLD) failed to hold its breakout and broke short-term support this week.
– The Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) has a potential double bottom in play and the ETF is challenging resistance.
– The Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) is still doing well and close to new highs.
– The Preferred Stock ETF (PFF) is not doing well as it fell the last two weeks.
– The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) failed to hold the early November breakout and extended its two month downtrend.
– Bonds are underperforming stocks overall and less appealing in a broadening bull market.
– The Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) became oversold in mid October and got a mean-reversion bounce/breakout.
Enjoy your weekend!
-Arthur Hill, CMT
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