Video, ChartBook Update and Chart Notes

ChartBook Notes

– SPY hit yet another new high and extended its Ascending Triangle breakout, which is three weeks old now.

– The 1-day ROC and 2-day ATR for the S&P 500 remain bullish. A dip below -1% in ROC and above 30 in ATR would be short-term negative.

– SPX Advance-Decline Percent surged to 58.6% on Friday, but $SML and $MID Advance-Decline Percent did not exceed 35%. Small and mid cap breadth was uninspiring.

– S&P 500 %Above 20-day EMA ($GT20SPX) moved above 75% and remains short-term bullish as long until it breaks below 50%.

– XLK led the new high list on Friday as High-Low Percent hit 23.53%. XLF (+14.93%) and XLI (+14.49%) were next, while XLV and XLC High-Low Percent exceeded +10%. XLY (+1.56%) lagged.

– New Highs: SPY, RSP, QQQ, XLK, XLC, XLV, XLI, XLB, SOXX, ITA, IHI, VIG,

– There are a lot of high and tight flags out there: October surge and short consolidation or pullback. These are bullish continuation patterns, but very short-term in nature and prone to whipsaw.

– RSP broke out of its high and tight flag.

– MDY, IJR and IWM remain within their high and tight flags.

– MTUM (momentum) is up 5.5% since October 2nd (32 days) and USMV (min vol) is up just 2.5%

– Nevertheless, USMV is still in an uptrend and breaking out of a triangle consolidation.

– XLY continues to stall, the Bollinger Bands narrowed and Bandwidth hit a 52-week low. Watch for the break.

– XLC made good on its flag breakout two weeks ago and hit a new high on Friday (courtesy of GOOG and DIS. FB still looks bullish).

– XLV led the sector SPDRs with a 2.13% gain on Friday and 52-week high.

– XLP is not exactly week because the trend is up and it is breaking out of a triangle. It is, however, lagging since mid September

– XLE is the weakest sector and in a long-term downtrend. There is, however, a bull flag working (October surge and two week pullback).

– USO (not on chartlist) advanced 1.43% on Friday and broke out of a small consolidation.

– XLU and XLRE are still in long-term uptrends, but lagging. Both got oversold/mean-reversion bounces this week as RSI(10) moved back above 30.

– SKYY extended its wedge breakout with a 1.45% surge on Friday.

– HACK is the leading tech-related ETF over the last 20 days with a 10.54% gain. SOXX is up 9.82%.

– FINX broke out of its wedge and exceeded its mid October high.

– FDN held support and bounced on Friday. Watch 137 for a breakout.

– IPAY extended on its early November breakout with a nice pop the last two days.

– IGV broke out of its wedge in early November, exceeded the October high last week and extended the breakout this week.

– ITB and XHB look shaky short-term because they closed down on Friday and remain within short-term corrections. 

– KBE and KRE also look short-term shaky and within short-term pullbacks (corrections) after their October surges.

– KIE stalled after its breakout, but the breakout is holding.

– IBB is up 14.74% the last 32 days and XBI broke above its mid September high this week.

– IHF surged 3.5% and hit a new high for 2019.

– IHI extended on its triangle breakout and hit a 52-week high with a 2% surge on Friday.

– GDX and GLD remain within falling wedge/channel patterns and are lagging over the last two months.

– Dividends are still in vogue as the Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) hit a new high this week.

– Bond ETFs bounced this week, but remain in downtrends since early September. The patterns look corrective in nature, but a broadening bull market in stocks makes bonds less appealing.

Enjoy your weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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