The usual disclaimers apply for the strategies and the analysis on TrendInvestorPro. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. You and you alone are responsible for your investment and trading decisions. Do your own due diligence.
Performance Metrics RO-Investor-SPX (last: 31-Oct-24)
The table below shows performance metrics for the S&P 500 Rotation Trader Strategy and $SPX buy-and-hold. The strategy outperformed buy-and-hold with a significantly higher Compound Annual Return (CAR): +14.57% vs +8.91% (green shading). Just as important, the strategy’s Maximum Drawdown (-18.91%) is around a third that of buy-and-hold (-56.59%) and the Average Drawdown is in the -16% range (blue shading). Clearly, risk (drawdown) is being appropriately rewarded (return).
The chart below shows the equity curves for the strategy (green line) and for S&P 500 buy-and-hold (black line). The equity curve for the strategy surged in 2024 and finished October near its high of the year. Overall, the strategy outperforms by tripling ending equity for $SPX buy-and-hold ($1,949,990 vs $627,641). Also note that $SPX buy-and-hold experienced large drawdowns in 2008 (-56%), 2020 (-34%) and 2022 (-25%). Notice how $SPX buy-and-hold (black line) went below the starting capital as it dipped below $100,000 in 2008. The strategy mitigated drawdowns and preserved capital by using the SPX Breadth Model to time the market and avoid the bear market. Notice how the strategy’s equity line was flat in 2008 and 2022.
The next image shows the annual returns for the strategy. 2024 is so far the third best year since 2003 and the fifth year with 30+ percent gains. Overall, there were 3 losing years, 18 winning years and two flat years (2008 and 2015). The strategy was in cash throughout 2008 because the SPX Breadth Model was bearish and the strategy was down .10% in 2015. Note that these returns do not include dividends or interest earned on cash. The average return over the entire period is +14.6% per year (blue line) and the Annual Sharpe Ratio is .90, which means risk is commensurate with reward.
The next image shows the drawdowns over the entire period (blue line). Drawdown is the percentage decline from an equity high. Even though the equity curve and annual returns look good, there will be drawdowns and doubts along the way. The last double-digit drawdown was in 2022 (-13%). We have not seen a drawdown greater than 14% since 2016. Not bad.
The next image shows the monthly return breakdown for the strategy. Hashmarks (-) show when the strategy was in cash because the SPX Breadth Model was bearish. 2022 was a down year because it started with a 10% loss in January. The strategy remained in cash the rest of the year because the SPX Breadth Model was bearish. The strategy is up 39% year-to-date (as of October 31st) and was up around 9% in the third quarter. The S&P 500 strategy held up much better than the Nasdaq 100 strategy in the third quarter because it was more diversified and had exposure outside of tech.
Testing Criteria
– Performance metrics are based on backtesting with historical constituents.
– Buy and sell signals are based on closing prices at the end of the week.
– Entries and exits are based on opening prices at the beginning of the week.
– Each buy/sell includes a .10% charge to account for slippage and commission.
– Each entry position is sized to be 1/10th of the portfolio
– The strategy holds a maximum of eight positions.
– Returns do NOT include dividends or interest earned from cash.
The usual disclaimers apply for the strategies and the analysis on TrendInvestorPro. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. You and you alone are responsible for your investment and trading decisions. Do your own due diligence.