Chinese stocks wet on a tear from mid April to mid May with the China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) gaining some 40% and breaking its 200-day SMA. FXI then fell back over the last few weeks. This surge and pullback created a potential opportunity because some stocks returned to their breakout zones. These so-called throwbacks offer traders a second chance to partake in the breakouts. Today’s example will show Alibaba (BABA), which was featured on ChartTrader this week. [9]
The chart below shows Alibaba with the 200-day SMA (red line) and the Trend Composite in the indicator window. On the price chart, BABA found support twice in the 67-68 area and broke resistance with a surge in May. The two lows in this area formed a Double Bottom and the breakout reversed the downtrend. Also notice that BABA broke the 200-day SMA.
Traders who did not catch the breakout have a second chance because BABA returned to the breakout zone in early June. This is a classic “throwback” to broken resistance, which turns into support. The stock also returned to the 200-day SMA and the decline retraced around 61.8% of the prior surge. This retracement is normal for a pullback within a bigger uptrend. Overall, I see a Support-Reversal Zone in the upper 70s and I am watching short-term resistance at 80. A breakout here would reverse the short-term downswing and argue for a resumption of the bigger uptrend.
As noted above, the indicator window shows the Trend Composite, which aggregates signals in five trend-following indicators. It moved to +1 in early May, which meant three of the five indicators triggered bullish signals (3 – 2 = +1). Two more indicators turned bullish by the end of May and all five are now bullish (+5). My strategy is to look for tradable pullbacks within bigger uptrends. The Trend Composite signals a long-term uptrend and the decline to the upper 70s is a tradable pullback. Note that this indicator is part of the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP. [20]
ChartTrader at TrendInvestorPro [9] featured BABA and two other Chinese names last week. Recent breakouts in several crypto-related names were also featured because their breakouts signaled a continuation of their bigger uptrends (IBIT, COIN, BLOK). Reports and videos are published twice per week. Click here to learn more. [9]