Moving from Thrust Signals to a Bull Market
- Arthur Hill, CMT
Thrust and 200-day Crosses
The bullish signals stacked up in April and May, but most long-term breadth indicators are still bearish. SPY and QQQ showed signs of capitulation in early April [1] and rebounded into mid April. A Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered on April 24th and several other thrust indicators turned bullish in May. We also saw SPY and QQQ break their 200-day SMAs [2]. TrendInvestorPro is tracking these signals and relevant exit strategies. [3]
TrendInvestorPro is following the breakout in XLU, the bull flag in GLD, a small wedge in AMLP, a breakout in XLP and more. We also covered trailing stop alternatives for pennant breakouts in key tech-related ETFs.
These are bullish indications for large-caps and, perhaps, stocks in the top half of the S&P 500. However, I would not call it a bull market until participation broadens. The chart below shows the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) moving back below their 200-day SMAs. The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) never came close and remains a big laggard.
The bottom window is perhaps the most telling. It shows the percentage of S&P 1500 stocks above their 200-day SMAs. This long-term breadth indicator did not cross above 50% in May. Except for a 1-day dip on January 10th, this indicator was above 50% from December 2023 to February 2025 (bull market). It broke below 40% on March 10th and has yet to fully recover (bear market). At the very least, a move above 50% is needed to show broadening participation worth of a bull market. This is how the market moves from bullish thrust signals to a bull market.
The S&P 1500 includes large-caps (500), small-caps (600) and mid-caps (400). Around 2/3 of components NYSE stocks and 1/3 Nasdaq stocks. It is a truly representative of the broader market.
Exit strategies are just as important as entries. The Zweig Breadth Thrust and the 5/200 day SMA cross provided entry signals in April and May. We now need an exit strategy. TrendInvestorPro put forth exit strategies [3] for both signals and these are updated in our reports. This week we covered the gap zones in SPY and QQQ, long-term breadth signals, big moves in metals and continued strength in Bitcoin. Click here to take a trial and gain full access. [3]