Headlines
- Year-to-date Performance: AI vs Metals
- Gold and Silver Surge, Yet Again
- Gold and Silver Miners Hit New Highs
- Copper Extends on Breakout
- Uranium Corrects as Uranium Stocks Hold Up
- Bitcoin ETF Extends on Breakout and Hits New High
- 7-10Yr TBond ETF Corrects within Uptrend
The next report will be the Friday Chart Fix (10 Oct).
The next Premium report/video will be on Tuesday, October 14th.
Year-to-date Performance: AI vs Metals
Precious metals and gold-silver miners are outperforming tech and AI ETFs in 2025. Who would have thought? The chart below shows year-to-date performance for SPY, QQQ, some tech ETFs and some metals ETFs. SPY and QQQ are up 15 and 20 percent year-to-date, respectively. Even so, the lowly Copper ETF is outperforming these two with a 24% gain. As consolation, the DB Base Metals ETF is lagging SPY-QQQ with a 12.5% gain. Precious metals and miners are the real story. GLD is up 51.7% year-to-date, which is more than XLK, AIQ, ARTY and SMH. The Gold Miners ETF and Silver Miners ETF are leaving everyone in the dust with gains exceeding 100%. This is some crazy stuff!
Gold and Silver Surge, Yet Again
There is no change on the Gold SPDR (GLD) as it tacked on another 4.1% so far this week. GLD is up around 22% since April 19th (35 trading days). The advance is looking parabolic in nature, but nobody knows how far this advance will extend or how long it will last. We know that GLD is in a strong and leading uptrend, and getting overextended short-term. There is no setup on the chart. GLD is simply in the trend-monitoring phase. This means it is time to monitor price action, consider an exit strategy and/or wait for the next setup. I am removing the support zone at 320 because marking support in runaway uptrends is pointless.
The Silver ETF (SLV) is in the same boat after a 31% advance since August 19th. This move is straight up, which amounts to a parabolic advance. A parabolic advance is pretty much the same as a bubble. After rising for a period, the advance accelerates higher with a steepening of the curved line (parabola). Parabolic advances are often unstainable, but it is also almost impossible to pick the top. The best we can do is monitor price action and consider a trailing stop, such as a Chandelier Exit (22,3) or (65,5). A break below the Chandelier Exit is not bearish. Instead, it is a mechanism to lock in profits and stem losses. The long-term trend is still up, and this means a pullback would likely lead to the next trading setup.
Gold and Silver Miners Hit New Highs
The next chart shows the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) with the parabolic advance (blue parabola) and the Chandelier Exit (22,3). This is a pretty tight stop, yet GDX has not closed below this line since the late May breakout. This is a testament to the shallowness of the pullbacks and the strength of the advance. After a 60% advance in the first five months of the year, GDX surged 53% in the last ten weeks. For reference, the Chandelier Exit is currently at 74.07, which is around 7% below current levels.
The next chart shows the Silver ETF (SLV) with similar characteristics and the Chandelier Exit (22,3) at 68.02.
Copper Extends on Breakout
The next chart shows the Copper ETF (CPER) in a long-term uptrend with big moves on both sides of the linear regression (up and down). A rising linear regression means the trend is up. CPER is currently trading right at the linear regression, which means it is not overbought or oversold (at the mean). Most recently, CPER held above its April low as it consolidated in August. The ETF broke out on September 2nd, extended above its rising 200-day in late September and closed above 31 this week. CPER is currently in the trend-monitoring phase with room to run.
The DB Base Metals ETF (DBB) extended on its uptrend with strength coming from all three components. Spot Zinc hit a new high for 2025 and spot Aluminum hit a 52-week high. Copper is the third equally weighted component. The last setup was the pennant into August and the last signal was the breakout on September 2nd. DBB is currently in the trend-monitoring phase.
Uranium Corrects as Uranium Stocks Hold Up
The Sprott Physical Uranium ETF (SRUUF) covers uranium as a commodity and the Uranium ETF (URA) represents uranium stocks. These two are positively correlated, but they can sometimes diverge. SRUUF fell sharply in early July, but URA held firm. Similarly, SRUUF fell 4% on September 12th, but URA barely budged. We can expect a wild ride with both because they have above average volatility.
The first chart shows SRUUF breaking out in late August and advancing into late September. SRUUF was up some 26% from August 20th to September 29th. The ETF fell 5.19% so far this week, but I view this decline as a pullback within a bigger uptrend. Note that weekly moves in excess of 5% are not uncommon for SRUUF. I count a dozen so far this year. %B and RSI have yet to become oversold, but we can assume a short-term oversold condition after a 5.2% decline. Also note the bullish setup zone in the 18-19 area. Here we have broken resistance turning support and the 50% retracement line. This is an area to watch for firming and a bounce.
The next chart shows URA moving higher this week and hitting a new high. There is no setup on this chart (trend-monitoring phase). The last setup was the falling flag in August and the last signal was a breakout in late August. The middle window shows the price-relative (URA/RSP ratio) hitting new highs in late September, which means uranium stocks are outperforming the broader market. For reference, the pink line shows the Chandelier Exit (65,5) at 44.54.
Bitcoin ETF Extends on Breakout and Hits New High
The Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) affirmed its long-term uptrend with a new high in early October. Price is also well above the rising 200-day SMA. After hitting a new high in mid August, the ETF traded flat with a narrowing consolidation into early October. A consolidation within an uptrend is a bullish continuation pattern. IBIT surged above the triangle line on October 1st and extended above the August high. Once again, the Chandelier Exit (65,5) held as the triangle formed and ticked up as IBIT recorded new 65-day highs. This exit is 5 ATR(65) values below the 65-day high.
7-10Yr TBond ETF Corrects within Uptrend
The 7-10Yr TBond ETF (IEF) could hold the key to small-caps, housing and banks. Right now, IEF is rising, which means the 10-yr Treasury Yield ($UST10Y) is falling. This is net positive for small-caps, housing and banks. Long-term support is set at 95, a break of which would reverse the long-term uptrend. Such a move would be bearish for bonds, bullish for rates (rising yields), and likely weigh on small-caps, housing and banks.
Short-term, IEF surged to 97.5 in mid September and pulled back into early October. I am using a Raff Regression Channel to define this short-term pullback and mark resistance at 96.8. A breakout here would signal a continuation of the bigger uptrend. The bottom window shows %B becoming moderately oversold with a move into the 0-.25 area. A breakout for IEF would be bearish for rates and this could be bullish for small-caps, housing and banks.
DISCLAIMER: This content provided strictly for informational and educational purposes. It should not be interpreted as an offer to buy or sell any security, nor as a solicitation to engage in any investment activity. Nothing here constitutes a recommendation regarding any specific security, portfolio, transaction, or investment strategy.
At times, the author or affiliates may hold positions or interests in securities discussed. Any stocks or examples mentioned are not endorsements or suggestions to purchase. This material does not consider your individual financial goals or circumstances, and you should seek guidance from a qualified financial or investment adviser before making any trading or investment decisions.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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