Today’s report will compare charts and performance for the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD). SOXX represents large-caps and is holding up. XSD represents the average semiconductor stock and it is not holding up. Broad weakness within the semiconductor group is likely to spread to large-cap semiconductor stocks and SOXX. Note that we will cover this and more in tomorrow’s Chart Trader Report & Video. [1]
The first chart shows SOXX peaking in late July and trending lower the last few months (red dashed line). SOXX remains above its 200-day SMA and the Trend Composite remains positive, but a bear flag formed here in October (blue lines). Flags are short-term continuation patterns. The prior move (September) was down so this flag is bearish. A flag break would signal a continuation lower and target a move to the next support zone in the 400 area.
The second chart shows a completely different picture. The Semiconductor SPDR (XSD), which represents the average semiconductor stock, is in a downtrend and underperforming. XSD is below its 200-day SMA and its Trend Composite is negative. The lower window shows the price-relative (XSD:SPY Ratio) below its 200-day SMA since mid August. This means XSD is underperforming SPY. Short-term, XSD broke flag support on Friday and this targets a move to the next support zone in the 175 area.
Large-caps semis (SOXX) are holding up for now, but relative and absolute weakness in the average semi (XSD) is a concern. I expect this broad weakness to extend to large-cap semis (SOXX). By extension, this would be negative for the tech sector, QQQ and the broader market (SPY).
Tomorrow at Chart Trader [1] we will cover broadening weakness within the stock market, a handful of leading groups and some bearish chart setups (stocks). Chart Trader reports and videos are published every Tuesday and Thursday. Click here for immediate access. [1]