I will post a Market Regime update later today (26-Feb) that covers breadth, yield spreads and interest rates.
The next report will be on Thursday, February 27th.
Stocks were hit hard the last four days, but some firmed on Tuesday as several ETFs hit support from their January lows or prior breakouts zones. SPY is testing the handle lows of the cup-with-handle pattern, while QQQ tests the wedge breakout zone. This is a moment of truth for the market with Nvidia reporting earnings after the close. Over 500 ETFs hold Nvidia!
My eyes are on the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) because it is still consolidating above its wedge breakout. Failure to hold this breakout would be a negative for the broader market (S&P 500). Mid-caps and small-caps are already in the dog house. I would also note that the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) are also at a moment of truth as they test support levels.
Over the last five days, SPY is down 2.82% and QQQ is down 4.83%. Bonds (TLT), Consumer Staples (XLP), Healthcare (XLV), REITs (IYR), Large-cap Biotech (IBB) and Insurance (KIE) are picking up the slack with gains this past week. Medical Devices (IHI) and Utilities (XLU) are down less than .50% and show relative strength. Gold (GLD) is also leading with a new high in late February, but the recent breakdown in the 10-yr Treasury Yield could weigh.
ETFs to watch include the Aerospace & Defense (ITA), which is oversold and at its breakout zone. Mag7 (MAGS) is oversold and trading in a Bullish Setup Zone. Big Biotech (IBB) is battling its breakout zone as Healthcare (XLV) broke flag resistance. MLP (AMLP) is holding strong as it consolidates near a high. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) broke out with a surge above 91. Bitcoin (IBIT) is oversold as it trades near the 38.2% retracement line.
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Video Headlines
- SPY and QQQ Fall Back after Hitting New Highs
- RSP Holds Wedge Breakout Zone
- IJR Breaks Lower Bollinger Band to Signal Downtrend
- XLK Tests Support and Rising 200-day SMA
- XLU Holds Wedge Breakout and Establishes Support
- XLF, XLC, KIE and AMLP Maintain Relative Strength
- XLI Tests Wedge Breakout Zone and Shows Relative Weakness
- MAGS becomes Oversold as it hits Key Retracement
- AIQ and ARTY Hit New Highs and Fall with Sharp Pullbacks
- BOTZ Holds September Breakout and Maintains Choppy Uptrend
- CLOU, SKYY, IGV and BLOK Fail to Hold Wedge Breakouts
- KRE, KBE and PAVE Fail to Hold Wedge Breakouts as Lower Highs Form
- ITA Hits Breakout Zone and becomes Short-term Oversold
- IBB Battles Breakout Zone
- TLT Reverses Downtrend with Channel Breakout
- GLD Notches Another New High
- IBIT Tests Consolidation Support as Bitcoin Corrects