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Next Week's Publishing Schedule
Tuesday, 22 February: Trend Composite Part 4: Momentum Portfolio:
Thursday, 24 February: Market/ETF Commentary
Saturday, 26 February: Weekend Video
Note that I am aiming to post between 8 and 8:30 AM ET.
The Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bearish this week as the S&P 500 led the broad market lower. New lows expanded and some 60% of stocks in the S&P 1500 are below their 200-day SMAs. Throw in widening yield spreads and the Market Regime is clearly bearish. Small-caps and mid-caps held up better this week, but short-term bearish patterns loom. Among the ETFs, commodities and commodity-related are leading, staples and finance related are holding up and XLU is near support. Several tech-related ETFs bounced in early February, but formed short-term bearish patterns and broke down this week. Other ETFs are also forming short-term bearish patterns and could be next. Overall, risk and volatility are above average.
Broad Market Notes
- Composite Breadth Model Flips with 5/200 Cross
- %Above SMA Indicators Tells the Story of the Market
January Bearish Breadth Thrusts have Yet to be Reversed - New Lows Expand in Mid-caps, Small-caps and NDX
- Stress Builds in the Credit Markets
- JNK and MBBB Lead Corporate Bonds Lower
- Fed Balance Sheet Expands a Modest Amount
- SPY and QQQ Reverse Short-term Upswings
- Small and Mid Caps Hold Up Better (short-term, not long-term)
- 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Gets a Safe Haven Bounce
- Gold Surges within Uptrend and Silver Follows
- Dollar Bounces after Sharp Pullback within Uptrend
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:
- Oil and Energy ETFs in Leading Uptrends and Extended (WTI, XLE, FCG)
- Finance, Banks and Insurance Uptrends Not Immune (XLF, KRE, KIE)
- Agribusiness and Metals ETFs in Leading Uptrends, but Extended (MOO, XME)
- Consumer Staples SPDR and Food & Beverage ETF Hold Up (XLP, PBJ)
- Global Carbon ETF Dips within Uptrend (KRBN)
- Copper ETFs Hold Choppy Uptrends as DBB Leads (CPER, COPX, DBB)
- Bearish Flags, Wedges and Pennants (XLB, IFRA, ITB, XRT, IHF, DRIV, CARZ)
- Four Big Sectors Reverse Short-term Bounces (XLK, XLY, XLV, XLI)
- Utilities SPDR Near Bottom of Rising Channel (XLU)
- REITs Sink and Residential REIT ETF Fails (IYR, REZ)
- Tech-Related ETFs Get Clobbered Again (SKYY, CIBR, SOXX, IGV, FINX)