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Next Week's Publishing Schedule
Tuesday, 15 February: Portfolio Level Testing for the Trend Composite Strategy
Thursday, 17 February: Market/ETF Commentary
Saturday, 19 February: Weekend Video
Note that I am aiming to post between 8 and 8:30 AM ET.
The Composite Breadth Model is net bullish because the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is above the 200-day SMA. Even so, some 55% of S&P 500 stocks are below their 200-day SMAs and fewer than 40% of mid-caps and small-caps are above their 200-day SMAs. There are more long-term downtrends than uptrends right now. Also note that yield spreads remain elevated, the Junk Bond ETF (JNK) hit a new low and the BBB Bond ETF (MBBB) plunged. The credit markets are showing some stress. Commodity-related ETFs continue to lead with oil the strongest and gold finding a big bid on Friday. Utilities, Staples and Finance related ETFs remain in uptrends, but might not be immune to broad market weakness.
Broad Market Notes
- Composite Breadth Model is Bullish, but…
- %Above SMA Indicators Are More Bearish than Bullish
- Yield Spreads Remain Elevated
- JNK and MBBB Lead Corporate Bonds Lower
- Fed Balance Sheet Expands a Small Amount
- SPY and QQQ Reverse Short-term Upswings
- Small and Mid Caps Hold Up Better (short-term, not long-term)
- 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Gets a Safe Haven Bounce
- Gold Surges within Uptrend and Silver Follows
- Dollar Bounces after Sharp Pullback within Uptrend
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:
- Commodity ETFs Lead New High List and Junk Bond ETFs Lead New Low List
- Energy ETFs Lead with Uptrends and New Highs (XLE, FCG, XOP – plus XES)
- Steel ETFs Perk Up with Break Outs (XME, SLX)
- Agriculture Related ETFs Hit New Highs with Big February (DBA, MOO)
- Global Carbon ETF Holds Near Breakout Zone (KRBN)
- Finance and Banks are in Uptrends, but Not Immune (XLF, KRE, KIE)
- Utes and Staples are Defensive, but Not Always Immune (XLU, XLP, PBJ)
- Copper Miners and Metals Extend Uptrends, but Copper Gets Hit (COPX, CPER, DBB)
- Residential REIT ETF Holds Up Fairly Well (REZ)
- Watching Small Wedge in the Infrastructure ETF (IFRA)
- Big Sectors with Impulse Declines, Upswings, Upswing Reversals (XLK, XLY, XLV)
- Range Bound, Near Range Lows, Weak February Bounce (XLI, XLB, ITB, XHB)
- Electric Vehicle ETFs Remain a Right Mess (DRIV, CARZ)
- 3 Tech ETFs: IGN and SOXX Reverse Upswings and CIBR Falls with Market