Still looking overextended and ripe for a rest. SPY formed three outsized weekly candles, the tallest since the advance began, over the last five weeks. In addition, the weekly gain/loss was well above average for three of the last five weeks (+1.02%, +1.92% , -.96%, -2.14%, +3.25%). With a 15.89% advance over the last 88 days (since October 2nd), SPY is 9.7% above its 40-week SMA and 8.6% above its 40-week EMA.
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 broke out of a falling pennant and hit a new high. Price action is bullish both long-term and short-term, even though I am still cautious because it looks overextended. The daily Rate-of-Change exceeded 1% five of the last ten days and ATR(22) moved above its 22-day SMA. Volatility is on the rise and an rising volatility is more negative than positive.