The usual disclaimers apply for the strategies and the analysis on TrendInvestorPro. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. You and you alone are responsible for your investment and trading decisions. Do your own due diligence.
This page is updated at the end of every quarter.
Performance Metrics for RO-Investor-NDX (last close: 31-Dec-24)
The table below shows performance metrics for the Rotation Investor Nasdaq 100 Strategy (RO-Investor-NDX) and $NDX buy-and-hold. The strategy handily outperforms buy-and-hold (+19.85% vs +14.84%), and the strategy’s Maximum Drawdown (-20.83%) was less than half that of buy-and-hold (-53.60%). The Average Drawdown was also significantly lower (-20.28% vs -31.5%). See the green and blue shading. This means the strategy outperformed buy-and-hold on a risk-adjusted basis and avoided big drawdowns. Also note that the strategy was invested 75% of the time and in cash 25% of the time because the NDX Breadth Model was bearish.
The strategy had a long-term Win Rate of 53%, which means 47% of the trades resulted in losses. The average gain (+17.91%) was more than twice the size of the average loss (-7.17%). This Win Rate and strong Gain/Loss ratio combined to produce a Profit Factor of 2.72, which means the strategy earned $2.72 profit for every $1 loss.
The chart below shows the equity curves for the strategy (green line) and for Nasdaq 100 buy-and-hold (black line). The strategy largely outperforms $NDX buy-and-hold because the equity line is almost always above the buy-and-hold line (black). Note that $NDX buy-and-hold experienced large drawdowns in 2008 (-53%) and 2022 (-35%). In contrast, the strategy’s equity curve (green line) was flat during bear markets. The strategy mitigated drawdowns and preserved capital by using the NDX Breadth Model to time the market and avoid the bear markets.
The next image shows the annual returns for the strategy. The strategy was up 34% (rounded) in 2024 and ended 2023 with a 23% gain. Overall the last 22 years, there were 2 losing years, 19 winning years and one flat year (2008). The strategy was in cash throughout 2008 because the market filter was bearish. Note that these returns do not include dividends or interest earned on cash. The average return over the entire period was +19.9% per year (blue line) and the Annual Sharpe Ratio was .90, which reflects the risk-adjusted return.
The next image shows the drawdowns over the entire period (blue line). Drawdown is the percentage decline from an equity high. Even though the equity curve and annual returns look good, there will be drawdowns and doubts along the way. Nasdaq 100 stocks are more volatile than S&P 500 stocks. As such, this strategy experienced five drawdowns greater than -16% since 2020. The most recent double-digit drawdown occurred this summer (-20%) and the strategy ended the year with an 8.47% drawdown.
Rotation Investor for Nasdaq 100 Stocks (RO-Investor-NDX) went live on November 11th, 2024. These performance metrics reflect backtest results for continuous trading since 2003, including hypothetical trades before November 11th. The strategy produced solid gains from November 1st to November 10th, edged higher from November 11th to 30th and then took a hit in December. Since going live, RO-Investor-NDX gained 1.8% from November 11th to 30th, but lost 5.6% in December as the market fell.
The next image shows the monthly return breakdown for the strategy. Hashmarks (-) show when the strategy was in cash because the market filter was bearish. 2022 was a down year because of the bear market that started with an 11% loss in January. The strategy was in cash the rest of the year. The last line shows monthly performance for 2024 and the strategy finished the year with a 34.4% gain.
Testing Criteria
– Performance metrics are based on backtesting with historical constituents.
– Buy and sell signals are based on closing prices at the end of the week.
– Entries and exits are based on opening prices at the beginning of the week.
– Each buy/sell includes a .10% charge to account for slippage and commission.
– Each entry position is sized to be 1/8th of the portfolio
– The strategy holds a maximum of eight positions.
– Returns do NOT include dividends or interest earned from cash.
The usual disclaimers apply for the strategies and the analysis on TrendInvestorPro. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. You and you alone are responsible for your investment and trading decisions. Do your own due diligence.
