Today’s article is the eighth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. Last week we looked at ATR Trailing Stops and time-based exits, but these did not add much value. Today we will add various profit targets based on percentage gains. The strategy will still sell when/if the Trend
The Composite Breadth Model turned bullish on Friday and this means the Market Regime is bullish. This also means the Trend Composite strategy outlined in part five can now choose trend-momentum signals in stock-related ETFs. Please review part five for details on this strategy.
Today’s article is the sixth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. We will take the strategy a step further by adding an ATR Trailing Stop and a time exit based on the number of bars in the trade. Time exits are similar to, but not exactly the same as, rebalancing.
Today’s article is the fifth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. The series was put on hold because of recent events and market volatility, but continues today and will complete before the end of the month. Today’s installment uses the highly curated All Weather ETF List, which covers most assets and has minimal overlap.
Today’s article is the fourth installment in the Trend Composite series. We started with an introduction to the Trend Composite, tested uptrend/downtrend signals and then moved to portfolio level testing using StochClose as the tiebreak. Today we focus more on StochClose rank by using
Today’s article is the third installment of the Trend Composite series, which is working towards a trend-momentum strategy for trading ETFs. Today we will move from “All Signals” testing to portfolio level testing. We will first use uptrend/downtrend signals
Today we put the individual trend-following indicators in the Trend Composite to the test and compare performance against the Trend Composite itself. These are “All Signals” tests that give us an idea of trade frequency (number of trades), Win Rate, Average Gain and Average Loss. We will also look at three other performance
This is the first article in a new strategy series that will extend over the next several weeks. We will start by defining the Trend Composite indicator and then work our way towards a systematic trading strategy. The strategy is based on signals from the Trend Composite.
In an ideal world, trends would be consistent and persist for months. An ideal uptrend would march higher by consistently recording higher highs and higher lows. Once reversed, a downtrend would take over and work its way lower with lower lows and lower highs. There are plenty of chart examples for these consistence and persistent trends.
While there are too many influences to list in one post, this commentary features a dozen books that helped me over the years. These books cover technical analysis, trend-momentum strategies, insights from great traders and the mindset required to stay in the game.
This article will dive into trend following. We will start by going over some key assumptions and expectations to consider when implementing a trend-following strategy. What are realistic Win Rates and Profit/Loss ratios? Attention then turns to selecting a timeframe suitable to trend-following. I will then explain 10 trend-following indicators
Seasonality takes a back seat to price action when it comes to analysis and signals, but seasonal patterns can provide a tailwind to existing trends or fresh signals. This report will look at the best and worst six months, break down the monthly numbers and analyze trends in the equity curves. May is here and June-July are around the corner so we will focus on these three months.
The turn of the month shows a strong bullish bias with an extremely stable equity curve that really took off the last few years. This strategy, which is only invested 38% of the time, outperformed buy and hold with a higher Compound Annual Return. Overall, the eight day percentage change at the turn of the month is positive 68% of the time for SPY. Despite strong numbers overall, February is weakest month when testing over the last twenty years, and we just happen to be in February.
There is a new ETF in town that promises big potential. The Invesco Next Generation Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQJ) is based on an index with the same name. As the Invesco web site explains, 90% of its total assets will come from the underlying index and this index is based on the 101st to 200th largest stocks in the Nasdaq. This makes it a small and mid cap version of the Nasdaq 100. The ETF is
2021 is just around the corner and chartists without a strategy should think long and hard about getting one. Trading in the direction of the trend is pretty much my bread and butter strategy. I do not fish for bottoms or attempt to pick tops. Tempting as it often is, I try to refrain from such endeavors as much as possible. More often than not, we are better off using trend-following indicators to identify bullish and bearish trend reversals
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RSI is widely used as a momentum oscillator to identify overbought and oversold levels. A dive into the formula, however, reveals that RSI is quite well equipped for trend-following strategies. It can even be used to rank ETFs and stocks to find those with the strongest momentum.
Seasonality is behind price action when it comes to analysis and signals, but monthly seasonal patterns can provide a tailwind to existing trends. This study will look at monthly seasonal patterns for the S&P 500 over the last 30 years with a new twist. In addition to win rate, we will also look at returns and the equity curves.
StochClose is an indicator that quantifies trend direction and trend strength. It also removes volatility from the equation and levels the playing field for stocks and ETFs. As such, it offers a balanced approach to trend identification and relative chart strength. TrendInvestorPro uses this indicator on charts and in the ETF ranking tables. This article will explain the methodology, show chart examples and provide an example of the ranking table.
For the third time in 20 years the stock market fell by more than 30%. As noted in the study of bear markets, the S&P 500 fell around 50% in 2002-2003 and 2008-2009. Folks are calling this a generational opportunity, but this is the third such opportunity in the last 30 years, which covers a generation.
Breadth indicators are also referred to as market internals. As the “vital signs” for an index or sector, breadth indicators reflect aggregate performance for the individual components. As such, breadth indicators can provide leading signals by strengthening before a bottom or weakening ahead of a top. After all, the whole is only as good as the sum of the parts