This articles covers the indicators and signals for a trend-momentum strategy to trade stock-based ETFs. The Composite Breadth Model defines market conditions. The Trend Composite and eSlope120 are used for trend identification, and Normalized ROC delivers the momentum rank. We show performance metrics for this strategy and provide a signal table.
We are making progress. After a big hiccup on Thursday, I reworked the strategy and will cover the basics in this article. Here are some of the changes. First, the strategy trades stocks in the Russell 1000 to capture more beta. Second, I tightened the volatility filter by requiring the standard deviation to be below 50%. Third, I added price,
Stock-Strategy: Trend Momentum Profit Target Strategy for Russell 1000 Stocks (Premium) Read More »
ETFs give traders a chance to trade baskets of stocks and spread the risk. This sounds like a positive, but ETF strategies suffered disproportionately in 2022 and 2023 is starting out the same. We should be rewarded for risk and the reward should
Impulse signals offer the chance to catch a trend as soon as it starts, but in-state signals give traders the opportunity to add momentum to their strategy. Today’s article compares a strategy using impulse signals for the Trend Composite against one that uses in-state signals. The latter
Trend Composite Impulse Signals versus In-State Signals with Momentum (Premium) Read More »
Today’s report will dive into the market filter, which is used to define bull and bear markets. Market filters are an important part of trend-following and momentum strategies that trade stocks and stock-based ETFs. The Composite Breadth Model has not worked well over the last 15 months, but this is a relatively short timeframe in the grand scheme
This report updates the strategy that trades the 50 All-Weather ETFs using the Trend Composite for trend status and StochClose for price rank. I am updating this strategy because the Composite Breadth Model turned
ETF-Strategy: Trend & StochClose Strategy for All Weather ETFs – UPDATES (Premium) Read More »
This article covers the indicators and signals for a trend-rank strategy to trade the 50 ETFs in the All Weather List. The Composite Breadth Model defines market conditions, the Trend Composite identifies the trend and StockClose provides the rank. We show performance metrics for this strategy and provide a signal table.
This report will update the Composite Breadth Model signals and compare signals to the 5/200 cross for the S&P 500. The CBM outperforms this cross and does so with few positions (whipsaws). The CBM also performs in
The Composite Breadth Model combines short-term thrust indicators, long-term trend indicators and S&P 500 trend signals to define the broad market environment: bull market or bear market. The idea is to take risks during bull markets and seek safety during bear markets
This is the first article in a new strategy series that will extend over the next several weeks. We will start by defining the Trend Composite indicator and then work our way towards a systematic trading strategy. The strategy is based on signals from the Trend Composite.
This article will dive into trend following. We will start by going over some key assumptions and expectations to consider when implementing a trend-following strategy. What are realistic Win Rates and Profit/Loss ratios? Attention then turns to selecting a timeframe suitable to trend-following. I will then explain 10 trend-following indicators
Sometimes what seems logical and helpful, is not and needs to be reconsidered. This is my conclusion with the sector breadth models. They are logical, and perhaps helpful at times, but they do not add value when it comes to timing trends in the sector SPDRs. A simple StochClose strategy performed better overall. This article will quantify signals for three breadth models using the sector SPDRs.
Sector Breadth Models versus a Simple Trend Following Technique (Premium) Read More »
The turn of the month shows a strong bullish bias with an extremely stable equity curve that really took off the last few years. This strategy, which is only invested 38% of the time, outperformed buy and hold with a higher Compound Annual Return. Overall, the eight day percentage change at the turn of the month is positive 68% of the time for SPY. Despite strong numbers overall, February is weakest month when testing over the last twenty years, and we just happen to be in February.
This page is for members with the appropriate subscription. There are two offerings at TrendInvestorPro: SystemTrader offers quantified strategies, signal pages and strategy articles. ChartTrader offers reports and videos with market analysis and trading setups. Username Password Remember Me Forgot Password
This article will explore and backtest different moving average combinations on the S&P 500 SPDR over the last twenty years. Most moving average strategies work great when SPY trends, regardless of the period settings. However, SPY (aka, the market) does not always trend and trends are not uniform. Some are short and fast, while others are long and steady. This means we need moving averages that can best adapt to different environments.
RSI is widely used as a momentum oscillator to identify overbought and oversold levels. A dive into the formula, however, reveals that RSI is quite well equipped for trend-following strategies. It can even be used to rank ETFs and stocks to find those with the strongest momentum.
RSI for Trend-Following and Momentum Strategies – Video and Chart Example Read More »
Seasonality is behind price action when it comes to analysis and signals, but monthly seasonal patterns can provide a tailwind to existing trends. This study will look at monthly seasonal patterns for the S&P 500 over the last 30 years with a new twist. In addition to win rate, we will also look at returns and the equity curves.
A New Twist on Measuring Monthly Seasonality Read More »
StochClose is an indicator that quantifies trend direction and trend strength. It also removes volatility from the equation and levels the playing field for stocks and ETFs. As such, it offers a balanced approach to trend identification and relative chart strength. TrendInvestorPro uses this indicator on charts and in the ETF ranking tables. This article will explain the methodology, show chart examples and provide an example of the ranking table.
StochClose – Introduction to Indicator, Methodology, Charts and Ranking Read More »
For the third time in 20 years the stock market fell by more than 30%. As noted in the study of bear markets, the S&P 500 fell around 50% in 2002-2003 and 2008-2009. Folks are calling this a generational opportunity, but this is the third such opportunity in the last 30 years, which covers a generation.
Strategy – Putting the All Weather Portfolio through the Wringer after the Market Crash Read More »