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Market and ETF Report – Slim Pickings, SPY Become Oversold (but), Dirty-Clean Energy Lead, Metals are Weak (Premium)

The pickings within the stock market are slim and the pickings outside the stock market are also slim. There are far more downtrends out there than uptrends and this limits the choices for trend-following and those looking for pullbacks within uptrends. SPY and QQQ are

Market and ETF Report – Slim Pickings, SPY Become Oversold (but), Dirty-Clean Energy Lead, Metals are Weak (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Correlations Rise, Gasoline Weighs on DBE, Base Metals Breakdown, Gold Falls As 10yr Rises (Premium)

SPY is testament to the volatile world we live in right now. The ETF surged some 14% in 22 days (.64% per day) from July 22nd until August 16th and then fell 8% the last 11 days (.73% per day). The fall, so far, is sharper than the rise. The reversal occurred with

Market and ETF Report – Correlations Rise, Gasoline Weighs on DBE, Base Metals Breakdown, Gold Falls As 10yr Rises (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – SPY and QQQ Become Oversold After Failures, Energy Continues to Lead, Agriculture Perks Up (Premium)

Stocks were hit hard again over the last two days and are now short-term oversold. While short-term oversold conditions could give way to an oversold bounce, we saw some important failures near falling 200-day SMAs over the last two weeks. These failures are long-term negative so I would not read too much into an oversold bounce

Market and ETF Report – SPY and QQQ Become Oversold After Failures, Energy Continues to Lead, Agriculture Perks Up (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Defensive ETFs Leading with Choppy Uptrends, Gold hits Short-term Support-Reversal Zone (Premium)

The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks, but SPY became short-term oversold after a sharp decline the last five days. Even though this could give way to a bounce, the bears reasserted themselves and risk looks above average for stocks. Today’s report will

Market and ETF Report – Defensive ETFs Leading with Choppy Uptrends, Gold hits Short-term Support-Reversal Zone (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – SPY and QQQ Reverse, Key Sectors and ETF Follow, Energy and Ag Buck the Trend (Premium)

Stocks fell sharply the last two days and these declines were enough to reverse the short-term uptrends in many stock-based ETFs. In particular, the short-term uptrends reversed for SPY and QQQ. This is a big deal because the Composite Breadth Model was

Market and ETF Report – SPY and QQQ Reverse, Key Sectors and ETF Follow, Energy and Ag Buck the Trend (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – SPY Hits Another Make or Break Area, Short-term Uptrends Rule until Reversed, September Seasonality (Premium)

The short-term uptrends are dominating the landscape, or at least this seems to be the case. SPY is below its falling 200-day SMA, but is up some 16% from its mid June low. It is a strong move that has yet to be reversed. In fact, there are dozens of ETFs with similar characteristics:

Market and ETF Report – SPY Hits Another Make or Break Area, Short-term Uptrends Rule until Reversed, September Seasonality (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Stocks Surge, but Bonds Fall, Overbought and Staying Overbought, Trend Composite Settings (Premium)

Stocks surged on reports that inflation was less than expected. Bonds did not. This is interesting because bonds are supposed to be more vulnerable to inflationary pressures. The news, however, is just the reported news we can never be sure of the true reasons for the price moves.

Market and ETF Report – Stocks Surge, but Bonds Fall, Overbought and Staying Overbought, Trend Composite Settings (Premium) Read More »

Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy (part 10) – Performance Update, Perspective on June Drawdown, First/Last Day of Week Entries

The previous article explained the methodology behind the Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy with signal and ranking table examples. This article will update performance by showing the equity curve relative to buy-and-hold, putting the June drawdown

Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy (part 10) – Performance Update, Perspective on June Drawdown, First/Last Day of Week Entries Read More »

Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy (part 9) Update – Impulse vs In-State Signals, Understanding Entries, Leaders at the Start of a Bull Market

This is an update to the Trend-Momentum strategy that trades the All Weather ETF List. First introduced in February 2022, this strategy benefits from bull markets by focusing on stock-based ETFs when the Composite Breadth Model turns

Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy (part 9) Update – Impulse vs In-State Signals, Understanding Entries, Leaders at the Start of a Bull Market Read More »

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 8) – Increasing Trade Frequency and Total Return with Percent Profit Targets

Today’s article is the eighth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. Last week we looked at ATR Trailing Stops and time-based exits, but these did not add much value. Today we will add various profit targets based on percentage gains. The strategy will still sell when/if the Trend

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 8) – Increasing Trade Frequency and Total Return with Percent Profit Targets Read More »

Trend Composite Strategy (part 7) – Trend-Momo AllW50 BB ETF Strategy, the Nature of Trend-Following, Live Example with Signal/Ranking Table

The Composite Breadth Model turned bullish on Friday and this means the Market Regime is bullish. This also means the Trend Composite strategy outlined in part five can now choose trend-momentum signals in stock-related ETFs. Please review part five for details on this strategy.

Trend Composite Strategy (part 7) – Trend-Momo AllW50 BB ETF Strategy, the Nature of Trend-Following, Live Example with Signal/Ranking Table Read More »

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 6) – Applying an ATR Trailing Stop and Testing Different Time Exits

Today’s article is the sixth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. We will take the strategy a step further by adding an ATR Trailing Stop and a time exit based on the number of bars in the trade. Time exits are similar to, but not exactly the same as, rebalancing.

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 6) – Applying an ATR Trailing Stop and Testing Different Time Exits Read More »

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 5) – All Weather List, Cross versus In-State Signals, Bear Market Alternatives

Today’s article is the fifth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. The series was put on hold because of recent events and market volatility, but continues today and will complete before the end of the month. Today’s installment uses the highly curated All Weather ETF List, which covers most assets and has minimal overlap.

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 5) – All Weather List, Cross versus In-State Signals, Bear Market Alternatives Read More »

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 4) – Volatility-Adjusted Performance, Portfolios based on Trend and Price Performance, Bear Market ETFs

Today’s article is the fourth installment in the Trend Composite series. We started with an introduction to the Trend Composite, tested uptrend/downtrend signals and then moved to portfolio level testing using StochClose as the tiebreak. Today we focus more on StochClose rank by using

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 4) – Volatility-Adjusted Performance, Portfolios based on Trend and Price Performance, Bear Market ETFs Read More »

Chart Strategy – Timeframes, Trend Composite, Momentum Composite, StochRSI, Setups and Signals (Premium)

A charting strategy is essential because it increases objectivity and improves the odds of success. A basic chart strategy is similar to basic black jack strategy. In his classic book, Beat the Dealer, Edward Thorp, lays out a basic black jack strategy with a set of rules to improve the odds. Once players master basic strategy, they can move on to card counting and such to further improve performance.

Chart Strategy – Timeframes, Trend Composite, Momentum Composite, StochRSI, Setups and Signals (Premium) Read More »

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 3) – Portfolio Level Testing, StochClose Ranking, Market Regime Filter, Optimizing Number of Positions

Today’s article is the third installment of the Trend Composite series, which is working towards a trend-momentum strategy for trading ETFs. Today we will move from “All Signals” testing to portfolio level testing. We will first use uptrend/downtrend signals

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 3) – Portfolio Level Testing, StochClose Ranking, Market Regime Filter, Optimizing Number of Positions Read More »

The Methodology behind the Composite Breadth Model – Indicators, Settings, Signals and Historical Performance (Premium)

The Composite Breadth Model combines short-term thrust indicators, long-term trend indicators and S&P 500 trend signals to define the broad market environment: bull market or bear market. The idea is to take risks during bull markets and seek safety during bear markets

The Methodology behind the Composite Breadth Model – Indicators, Settings, Signals and Historical Performance (Premium) Read More »

Trend Composite – Understanding the Indicators, Aggregating Signals, Reducing Whipsaws, Catching Trends

This is the first article in a new strategy series that will extend over the next several weeks. We will start by defining the Trend Composite indicator and then work our way towards a systematic trading strategy. The strategy is based on signals from the Trend Composite.

Trend Composite – Understanding the Indicators, Aggregating Signals, Reducing Whipsaws, Catching Trends Read More »

Introduction to Trend-Following (revised) – Assumptions, Expectations, Indicators, Backtests and Conclusions – with video (Premium)

This article will dive into trend following. We will start by going over some key assumptions and expectations to consider when implementing a trend-following strategy. What are realistic Win Rates and Profit/Loss ratios? Attention then turns to selecting a timeframe suitable to trend-following. I will then explain 10 trend-following indicators

Introduction to Trend-Following (revised) – Assumptions, Expectations, Indicators, Backtests and Conclusions – with video (Premium) Read More »

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