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This report updates the strategy that trades the 50 All-Weather ETFs using the Trend Composite for trend status and StochClose for price rank. I am updating this strategy because the Composite Breadth Model turned
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Recent events in the banking world jolted stocks. This jolt was enough to push the Composite Breadth Model into negative territory and widen yield spreads. The Regional Bank
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) fell back to its 200-day SMA in February and then surged with a sharp advance the last few days. This advance triggered breakouts in several ETFs that were featured in last week’s report and video. Today’s report will update these charts and set the
This report is an update for the Trend Composite and StochClose Rank Strategy that trades ETFs in the All-Weather List during bull and bear markets. Examining recent performance and signals can
February has been a tough month for stocks and the vast majority of ETFs. The S&P 500 peaked on February 2nd and is down around 4.6% the last 16 days. All sector SPDRs are down over this period with
Broad market timing is important because the state of the stock market is the single biggest influence on stocks and stock-based ETFs. The odds are in our favor during bull markets and stacked against us during bear markets.
Stocks surged in January and then moved into pullback mode here in February. As such, many ETFs formed falling flags, falling wedges or other short-term corrective patterns over the last three weeks. This includes the big three: SPY, QQQ and IWM. The market is in corrective mode as long as
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but rates are rising again and stock market volatility is above average. Rising rates are putting a bid in the Dollar and weighing on gold. Tech, housing and retail related
The stock market moved from a defensive and risk-off bias in 2022 to an offensive and risk-on bias in 2023. Tech, high-beta and consumer discretionary ETFs are leading in 2023 with some of the biggest moves year-to-date. Many became overbought in early
Stocks advanced from late December to early February with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) gaining over 10% from low to high. SPY then pulled back last week with a 2.5% decline from the
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This article covers the indicators and signals for a trend-rank strategy to trade the 50 ETFs in the All Weather List. The Composite Breadth Model defines market conditions, the Trend Composite identifies the trend and StockClose provides the rank. We show performance metrics for this strategy and provide a signal table.
High-beta and risk-on ETFs are leading the market here in 2023 with big surges the last five weeks. Many triggered bullish trend signals, but they are also short-term overbought and ripe for a rest. Conversely, low-beta
Stocks surged in January and this surge pushed the Composite Breadth Model to a make or break level. The same goes for SPY and QQQ. The CMB was very close to turning bullish last week, while SPY and QQQ were close to breaking above their resistance zones
2023 is starting with a bang as the high-beta groups outperform. High-beta groups are the same as risk-on groups and offensive groups. The 2022 leaders,
The stock market is quite mixed at the moment. The Composite Breadth Model is negative and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is below the 200-day SMA. The percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA indicators, however, are showing strength within the broader market because they are above 50%. SPY is nearing a moment
Today’s report will dive into monthly seasonal patterns using benchmark metrics and equity curves. The stock market has a long-term bullish bias and the monthly return metrics reflect this positive bias.
This report will introduce the criteria, indicators and signals for a mean-reversion strategy that trades ETFs. The strategy buys after excessive declines and sells after the first bounce. Buy the dip and sell the rip. This is a very picky
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Stocks, bonds, the Euro and metals started the year with a bang. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged 2.3% on Friday and is up 1.42% year-to-date. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF is outperforming SPY with a 6.2% advance and the DB Base Metals ETF surged over
Today’s report will cover some seasonal patterns at work in the stock market. The Santa Claus Rally just ended on Wednesday and the eight day turn-of-the-month ends on Friday. Historically, these are short-term bullish periods. The fourth
We start the New Year with a negative Composite Breadth Model and bear market environment. 2022 was the year of the whipsaw and largely a year to forget. Nobody knows that 2023 will bring, but the bear market environment indicate that risk remains above average for
Today’s report will start with a stock market overview with analysis of the big three (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and three key industry group ETFs (SOXX, XRT, ITB). Housing is holding up, but the other five broke down and the weight