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Broad market timing is important because the state of the stock market is the single biggest influence on stocks and stock-based ETFs. The odds are in our favor during bull markets and stacked against us during bear markets.
The weight of the evidence is technically bullish for the stock market, but the bears fired a shot across the bow as SPY and other key ETFs broke short-term support levels. Many ETFs were consolidating with falling flags, falling wedges or
Stocks surged in January and then moved into pullback mode here in February. As such, many ETFs formed falling flags, falling wedges or other short-term corrective patterns over the last three weeks. This includes the big three: SPY, QQQ and IWM. The market is in corrective mode as long as
This article introduces a table to identify oversold setups in ETFs that meet the requirements of the mean-reversion strategy. The current setups are shown at the top for quick and easy access
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but rates are rising again and stock market volatility is above average. Rising rates are putting a bid in the Dollar and weighing on gold. Tech, housing and retail related
The weight of the evidence is bullish for stocks. The CBM is positive, SPY broke out of a big falling wedge and QQQ broke double bottom resistance. Short-term, stocks surged in 2023 with the
The stock market moved from a defensive and risk-off bias in 2022 to an offensive and risk-on bias in 2023. Tech, high-beta and consumer discretionary ETFs are leading in 2023 with some of the biggest moves year-to-date. Many became overbought in early
Stocks advanced from late December to early February with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) gaining over 10% from low to high. SPY then pulled back last week with a 2.5% decline from the
This article covers the Trend-StochClose Bull-Bear ETF Strategy that trades the All Weather ETFs. This article will serve as the main page to explain the key aspects of the strategy and show how signals work.
The Composite Breadth Model turned positive on January 31st, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong across the board and yields spreads are trending lower (narrowing). This makes the Market Regime bullish for stocks. The only caveat
High-beta and risk-on ETFs are leading the market here in 2023 with big surges the last five weeks. Many triggered bullish trend signals, but they are also short-term overbought and ripe for a rest. Conversely, low-beta
This article will introduce a trading strategy for stock-based ETFs. It is a long-only strategy that trades when stocks are in a bull market and moves to cash
The Composite Breadth Model turned positive and hit its highest level since January 2022. This means the weight of the evidence turned bullish for stocks. Narrowing yield spreads show increasing confidence
Stocks surged in January and this surge pushed the Composite Breadth Model to a make or break level. The same goes for SPY and QQQ. The CMB was very close to turning bullish last week, while SPY and QQQ were close to breaking above their resistance zones
The Composite Breadth Model improved, but remains negative and the market is at a critical level. A critical level means we are at a moment of truth or a make or break point. One more push higher would turn the CBM positive and trigger a big wedge
2023 is starting with a bang as the high-beta groups outperform. High-beta groups are the same as risk-on groups and offensive groups. The 2022 leaders,
Today’s update covers the recent mean-reversion setups. Stocks advanced in the first half of January and setups do not materialize with strength. The sharp pullback over the last two days pushed some ETFs into oversold territory for mean-reversion
This is part 2 of the mean-reversion strategy for trading ETFs. We covered the indicators, setups and signals in part 1. Part 2 will show some trade examples, backtest results and performance charts. Backtest results help us set expectations going forward and prepare for adverse reactions, which will happen.
This is a short update covering the S&P 500 SPDR, a bearish breadth signal and two ETFs. Stocks were hit pretty hard on Wednesday with all sectors moving lower. In an interesting twist, the low volatility sectors, Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples
The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the market is quite split overall. The 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is very close to crossing above the 200-day SMA, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong and yield spreads are narrowing. There was also a move
The stock market is quite mixed at the moment. The Composite Breadth Model is negative and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is below the 200-day SMA. The percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA indicators, however, are showing strength within the broader market because they are above 50%. SPY is nearing a moment