Today’s report will dive into the market filter, which is used to define bull and bear markets. Market filters are an important part of trend-following and momentum strategies that trade stocks and stock-based ETFs. The Composite Breadth Model has not worked well over the last 15 months, but this is a relatively short timeframe in the grand scheme
Broad market timing is important because the state of the stock market is the single biggest influence on stocks and stock-based ETFs. The odds are in our favor during bull markets and stacked against us during bear markets.
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This report will update the Composite Breadth Model signals and compare signals to the 5/200 cross for the S&P 500. The CBM outperforms this cross and does so with few positions (whipsaws). The CBM also performs in
The broad market timing model took another evolutionary step. The goal is to develop a logical and robust model that captured major moves in the stock market, and will continue to capture these moves. We are not talking pullbacks, corrections or dead cat bounces. Instead, we are talking bull and bear markets that affect the vast majority of stocks. The BIG trend or the market regime, as it also called.