Today’s report will dive into monthly seasonal patterns using benchmark metrics and equity curves. The stock market has a long-term bullish bias and the monthly return metrics reflect this positive bias.
Sometimes what seems logical and helpful, is not and needs to be reconsidered. This is my conclusion with the sector breadth models. They are logical, and perhaps helpful at times, but they do not add value when it comes to timing trends in the sector SPDRs. A simple StochClose strategy performed better overall. This article will quantify signals for three breadth models using the sector SPDRs.
This article will explore and backtest different moving average combinations on the S&P 500 SPDR over the last twenty years. Most moving average strategies work great when SPY trends, regardless of the period settings. However, SPY (aka, the market) does not always trend and trends are not uniform. Some are short and fast, while others are long and steady. This means we need moving averages that can best adapt to different environments.