Trading is all about the odds. Trade when the odds are in your favor. Exercise patience and stand aside when the odds are NOT in your favor. Stocks are in a bear market and the vast majority of names are trading below their 200-day SMAs. Clearly, the odds are NOT in our favor for equities and equity ETFs. Traders need to look elsewhere. Today’s report will highlight some non-equity leaders and analyze Bitcoin as it sets up.

With fast-moving markets, this report is vulnerable to self-destruction within 5 days. The bond vigilantes sent a message as long-term yields surged and bonds plunged. Unless reversed, these developments are negative for stocks, especially rate sensitive stocks.

The weight of the evidence shifted to the bears over the last few weeks. First, the major index ETFs reversed their long-term uptrends with Bollinger Band signals, our breadth models turned net negative and yield spreads widened. This report will focus on the breakdown in the

2025 is off to a rough start for stocks, but there are still some pockets of strength in the market. Year-to-date, SPY is down 1.73%, QQQ is down around 4% and the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) is down over 6%. ETFs with smaller losses show relative strength (less weakness), but ETFs with year-to-date gains show relative

The Russell 2000 ETF triggered a bearish trend signal this week and continues to underperform S&P 500 SPDR, which remains with a bullish trend signal. Today’s report shows the Keltner Channel signals in each. SPY is currently correcting within an uptrend and pullbacks within uptrends are opportunities

The news cycle is in high gear lately, leading to some extra volatility. Traders reacting to the news are getting whipsawed, while chartists remain focused on what really matters. Price. Price isn’t everything, it is the only thing. News, rumors, fundamentals, the Fed, government policy and

The Finance sector is leading the market with a new high this week and the Bank SPDR (KBE) is extending on its breakout. Today’s report will outline the lessons of the early January setup and show the mid January breakout. We then show how to set a re-evaluation level that would prove the breakout wrong.

The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) has been leading the market for a solid four months and recorded yet another new high this week. Chartists looking to take advantage of this leadership can use two timeframes: one to establish the absolute and relative trends, and another to identify tradable pullbacks along the way. Note that CIBR has been on our radar for four months and was featured in October.

Mid-caps show leadership and were the first to trigger a breadth thrust. Stocks surged this week with mid-caps showing the highest participation rate. Chartists can quantify the participation rate and identify breadth thrusts using the percentage of stocks above their 20-day SMAs. We will analyze these indicators for six broad indexes and show the breadth thrust for the S&P MidCap 400

The stock market is in pullback mode with the S&P 500 EW ETF down 5.15% over the past month and down 1% year-to-date. This makes it a good time to monitor relative performance and create a relative strength watch list. Stocks and ETFs holding up best during pullbacks often lead when the market regains its footing. Today’s report will show a starter list and analyze the chart for an AI Robotics ETF.

The Russell 2000 ETF managed a double digit gain in 2024, but did it the hard way with several deep pullbacks along the way. Pullbacks within uptrends are opportunities and we can find such opportunities using %B. The chart below shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) with the Zigzag(8) indicator. This indicator changes direction when there is a move greater than 8%, which means it ignores price moves that are less than 8%.