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Volatility Contraction in QQQ could Foreshadow an Expansion

The weekly high-low range for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) was the narrowest of the year this past week and the ETF is battling triangle resistance. A narrowing range shows indecision and a volatility contraction. Even though this is just one weekly bar, QQQ is at a moment of truth. Will we see a triangle breakout and continuation higher or a failure at resistance and extended correction?

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Two ETFs with Market Leading Charts and Fast Growing Industries

New highs and a fast growing industry group make for a powerful combination. Today’s article will focus on two ETFs that capture two fast growing industries, video gaming and esports. We will show why these two ETFs are leading, why a consolidation within an uptrend is bullish and why a 50-day SMA is better suited for mean-reversion trading.

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The Setup to Anticipate the Breakout – XME Example

Chartists are often faced with a choice: wait for the breakout or anticipate using a mean-reversion setup. The Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) broke out of a bullish consolidation this week and the breakout signals a continuation of its long-term uptrend. Chartists keying off the mean-reversion setup could have anticipated the breakout and gotten the early jump. Let’s investigate.

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Silver Crosses Turn Dull

There are fewer silver crosses in the major stock indexes and this shows less participation during the last leg higher. A silver cross occurs when the 20-day EMA crosses above the 50-day EMA. DecisionPoint took this concept on step further and developed breadth indicators based on the percentage of stocks with silver crosses. This is a great way to look under the hood and aggregate medium-term trend performance for each index. The chart below shows this indicator for four key indexes: $NDX, $SPX, $MID and $SML. I set the bullish and bearish thresholds at

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Trend Composite Turns Fully Bullish for Verizon

Verizon (VZ) participated in the first leg up from late March to mid April, but then stumbled with a decline into mid June. This stumble, however, looks like a classic correction and the stock broke out with a strong move over the last six weeks. In addition, the TIP Trend Composite, which aggregates five trend-following indicators turned positive in early August. Let’s investigate further.

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Four Stocks Poised to Drive Healthcare Higher

The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) is one of the strongest sectors in 2020. Even though it does not sport the biggest gain, XLV recorded a new high in July and some 80% of its components are above their 200-day EMAs. The new high points to a long-term uptrend and upside leadership, while the percentage of stocks above the 200-day EMA points to broad strength within the sector. Sector SPDRs, however, are only as strong as the sum of their parts (component stocks).

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A Bollinger Band Breakout or the Dreaded Head Fake?

There were a number of Bollinger Band squeeze plays over the last two weeks and also a number of breakouts. These breakouts are bullish until proven otherwise, but chartists should also be aware of the head fake. In his book, Bollinger on Bollinger Bands, here’s how John Bollinger puts it: Traders beware! There is a trick to The Squeeze, an odd turning of the wheel that you need to be aware of, the head fake.

A Bollinger Band Breakout or the Dreaded Head Fake? Read More »

Knowing When to Add Risk and When to Reduce Risk

The S&P 500 is the most widely used benchmark for the US stock market and the 200-day SMA is perhaps the most widely used moving average. These two came together again in late May as the index crossed back above on May 27th. Today we quantify the performance of prior signals and show how a little smoothing can go a long way. Furthermore, a simple market timing mechanism can tell investors when to add risk and when to seek alternatives to stocks.

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Timing S&P 500 Swings Using the Bullish Percent Index

The Bullish Percent Index is a breadth indicator that quantifies double top breakouts and double bottom breakdowns, Point & Figure style. Basically, this indicator measures higher highs (breakouts) versus lower lows (breakdowns). This makes it a great candidate to quantify underlying strength and weakness in the S&P 500. There have been three signals in the last few months and one triggered this week.

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Big Biotechs Make a Big Statement

The two most popular biotech ETFs are leading the market this month and making big statements. Before looking at these two, note that they are quite different. The Biotech ETF (IBB) is dominated by large-cap biotechs with the top ten holdings accounting for over 50%. The Biotech SPDR (XBI), on the other hand, is a broad-based ETF with the top ten holdings accounting for less than 25% of the ETF.

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