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The Trend Composite is a trend indicator that aggregate signals in five indicators. Bollinger Bands (125,1), Keltner Channels (125,2), 5-day Rate-of-Change of 125-day SMA, StochClose (125,5) and CCI-Close (125). Click on any column heading to sort. This table is updated every Friday before the open.
Stock-Signals: S&P 500 Trend Composite Signals Read More »
Any strategy that trades stocks needs some sort of market timing mechanism to identify bull and bear markets. Typically, stock strategies are fully invested during bull markets because risk is acceptable. Strategies move to cash
Market Timing for a Rules-Based Strategy Read More »
Extended trends often start with big bangs and major breakouts. Chartists can identify “big bang” moves by showing price change in ATR terms. We can use the price charts to identify big breakouts. Today’s example will show
It all Started with a Big Bang! Read More »
The Home Construction ETF (ITB) is leading the market as it surged to a new closing high this week. While this high is certainly bullish and points to upside leadership, the real signal triggered back in early July as the Trend Composite turned bullish with an outsized move. Let’s review this signal and then look at a recent signal in
This Housing-Related Stock Just Printed a 5 for the Trend Composite Read More »
The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is turning the corner as a long-term trend indicator turns bullish and price extends on a breakout. TLT is also starting to outperform the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP), for the first time in a long time.
TLT Turns the Corner and Starts to Lead Read More »
QQQ is leading the market lower and weighing on tech stocks. The long-term trend is up and oversold breadth could present an opportunity. Short-term breadth has yet to become oversold and this means we may have further downside first.
This Breadth Indicator Points to More Downside – And a Potential Opportunity Read More »
After a big run this year, Nvidia (NVDA) fell over 15% from its high and broke its 50-day SMA. On the face of it, a break below this “key” moving average seems like a short-term bearish signal. Such a view, however
Nvidia Breaks the 50-day SMA – Is this a Threat or an Opportunity? Read More »
Small-caps took the lead over the last two weeks with the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) surging over 10% in five days and hitting a new high. IJR also broke out of a long consolidation and this breakout is bullish. There are now three possibilities going forward
Small-caps Break Out and Lead – Now What? Read More »
The Nasdaq 100 is a major driver in the stock market and Nasdaq 100 breadth indicators should be part of our broad market analysis routine. 84 Nasdaq 100 stocks (16.8%) are also in the S&P 500 and their weighting
Using Nasdaq 100 Specific Breadth to Measure Risk Appetite Read More »
The broader market is fairly mixed with one clear leader: technology. I am also seeing mixed performance within the technology sector and within specific groups. Semiconductors are strong overall, but groups like cybersecurity
Finding Emerging Leaders within Key Groups Read More »
Chinese stocks wet on a tear from mid April to mid May with the China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) gaining some 40% and breaking its 200-day SMA. FXI then fell back over the last few weeks. This surge and pullback created a potential opportunity because some stocks
Alibaba Returns to the Scene of the Crime Read More »
As the name suggests, Dual Momentum Rotation Strategies focus on stocks that are in absolute and relative uptrends. This is a two-step process. First, filter out stocks that are in long-term downtrends and only focus on stocks in uptrend. Second, rank
Visualizing the Holdings for a Dual Momentum Rotation Strategy Read More »
Traders can improve their odds by ignoring distraction signals and focusing on setups with real potential. In general, short timeframes are better suited for mean-reversion, while long timeframes
Differentiating between Short-term Distractions and Setups with True Potential Read More »
There is a certain ebb and flow in uptrends. Often we see some sort of stair step higher with big advances and smaller corrections along the way. In Dow Theory terms, the primary trend is up and declines within a primary uptrend are
Bitcoin Sets Up with Classic Continuation Signal – Part 1 Read More »
After sharp declines into mid April, stocks rebounded over the last three weeks and the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) came within 1% of its March high. This March high acts
Six Leaders, but One Is Getting Real Frothy Read More »
Stocks fell sharply into late April and then rebounded over the last two weeks. SPY fell 5.34% from March 28th to April 19th and then rebounded with a 3.26% gain the last two weeks. Does this bounce have legs? Chartists can separate
Is this a Dead-Cat Bounce or a Bounce with Legs? Read More »
Trends often start with outsized moves. But how do we measure and identify such moves? Chartists can measure moves in Average True Range (ATR) terms using the ATR Trailing Stop SAR indicator (ATR-SAR). ATR is a volatility indicator developed by Welles Wilder.
Using Outsized Moves to Identify Trend Reversals – Checking in on ITB and SOXX Read More »
I am mostly a technical analyst and trading system developer, but I also like to understand the companies behind the big business trends. AI is the hottest trend right now and has the potential to be bigger than the Internet. To this end, I am getting up to speed through a variety of sources. Today’s
Internet Boom, Apple’s Run, AI and Nvidia Read More »
Momentum and trend strategies are off to a roaring start here in 2024. More often than not, these strategies buy leading stocks that appear overbought. Buying stocks that appear overbought often goes against our “gut feel”, but overbought conditions reflect strong buying pressure and this is clearly
The 200-day SMA is perhaps the most widely used long-term moving average. As its name implies, it is a simple indicator that chartists can use for trend-following and momentum strategies. For trend-following, we just need to know
An Indicator to Define the Trend and Quantify Momentum Read More »
The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) failed again at the falling 40-week SMA and looks poised to resume its bigger downtrend. Keep in mind that bonds and yields move in the opposite direction. A resumption of the
20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Resumes its Downtrend Read More »