ETF Analysis

Growth and High-Beta Start to Lead – Brazil and Emerging Markets Break Out (Subscribers)

It has been a wild ride for the Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) and Nasdaq 100 Next Gen ETF (QQQJ) over the last two weeks as they went from emerging leaders to overreaction laggards and back to leading. The lagging part occurred last Tuesday when stocks fell sharply during the day. This whipsaw action is looking more like short-term noise because these two are leading again with strong recoveries.

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Cyclical ETFs Lead with New Highs, Big Techs Perk Up, High-flyers Remain Subdued (Premium)

There are plenty of strong pockets in the stock market with several cyclically oriented ETFs hitting new highs and large-cap techs coming back to life. This month we are seeing new highs in ETFs related to industrials, materials, housing, semiconductors, transports and steel. We are also seeing some big moves in ETFs dominated by large-cap tech. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR hit a new high and I consider Amazon, its

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Mixed Market with Strength in Cyclicals and Non-Cyclicals, Large Cap Techs Perk Up (Premium)

The market continues to be mixed and bullish. Techs and high-flying ETFs led the correction from the February highs to the March lows, but we are now seeing signs of short-term leadership in large-cap techs, namely QQQ and XLK. These two held well above their early March lows and broke out of flag patterns. Other tech-related ETFs and high-flyers are

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Flag Failures, Risk Aversion, Defensive Sectors Shine, Big Advances lead to Big Corrections(Premium)

The market remains defensive overall. There were flag breakouts in a number of tech and growth ETFs last week and these breakouts are failing this week. Once again, the tech and growth ETFs are leading the way lower. Even though these ETFs are down sharply over the last six weeks, the declines still look like corrections within bigger uptrends. The mid March highs provide the first resistance levels to watch going forward.

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Finance, Industrials and Energy Hold up as Tech, Healthcare and High-Flyers Correct (Premium)

Even though ETFs related to small-caps, mid-caps, industrials, finance and energy are performing well and not part of the correction process, a big portion of the core ETF list are in some sort of pullback or correction over the last few weeks. 48 of the 119 ETFs in the core list are down over the last 22 trading days (since January 29th) and 22 are down more than 5%.

ETF Ranking, Grouping and Analysis – Dead Cat Bounces or More?

My, that was quick. A few days ago, Friday January 31st, to be exact, the S&P 500 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF were down year-to-date. The S&P 500 had just suffered its worst weekly decline since late July (-2.14%) and the small-cap Russell fell 2.94%. In addition, seven of the twelve sector SPDRs were down year-to-date on January 31st

ETF Ranking, Grouping and Analysis – Defensive Names Improve as Equity-Related ETFs Weaken

The defensive names further improved this week, while the number of ETFs showing real weakness expanded. ETFs related to bonds, precious metals (sans silver), utilities and REITs remain strong. We saw the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF, Aggregate Bond ETF and Gold SPDR extend further on their falling wedge breakouts. The Utilities SPDR is the leading sector here in January with a 6.24% gain.

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Consumer Discretionary and Precious Metals Come to Life

The strong continue to strengthen and the laggards are leading short-term. Overall, this suggest that the bull market continues to broaden and pick up more converts. The S&P 500 SPDR, Nasdaq 100 ETF and Technology SPDR were leading all year and they simply extended their leads with fresh new highs this week. The energy-related ETFs were lagging all year and then surged over the last five weeks.

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Leaders Extend Gains as ETFs in Downtrend Get Big Bounces

Strength in the US stock market is broad-based with 25 of the 46 (53%) equity-related ETFs hitting new highs over the last five days (including EFA). Of the 21 ETFs that did not hit new highs, several led the stock market over the last two weeks with big counter-trend bounces. Four energy-related ETFs were up double digits the last 11 days and XLE (+5.83%) is the leading sector over this time period.

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